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Liga MX

Necaxa vs América — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    América

    50% means we estimate about 50 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Necaxa 25% · Draw 25% · América 50%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    América

    1.98 decimal odds

    Coolbet · US −102

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 1.98 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    −0.8 percentage points

    Our estimate is 50%; the price implies 51%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Necaxamodel 24% · market 25% (model vs market −1.0pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 25% (model vs market +0.5pp)
Américamodel 50% · market 50% (model vs market +0.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 35 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Necaxa

    3.81 at GTbets

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.9625.2% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • Draw

    3.80 at BetOnline +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.9725.2% implieddifference −1.1pp

  • América

    1.98 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0249.6% implieddifference −0.9pp

Necaxa drifted from 3.73 to 3.77 (+1.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.662.964.2523 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
NecaxaDrawAmérica
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 32–35 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 35 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookNecaxaDrawAméricaCollected
888sport3.503.301.85
Betano3.603.701.87
Betclic3.483.501.86
Betfred3.303.601.90
BetMGM3.603.701.91
BetOnline3.60Best price: 3.801.96
BetRivers3.603.551.89
Betsson3.703.601.88
BetUS3.603.801.95
BetVictor3.603.701.87
Betway3.603.801.91
BoyleSports3.303.601.83
Casumo3.603.551.89
Coolbet3.503.75Best price: 1.98
DraftKings3.603.701.91
Fanatics3.603.801.91
FanDuel3.503.701.95
Grosvenor3.603.551.89
GTbetsBest price: 3.813.721.95
LeoVegas3.503.551.92
LeoVegas3.453.401.83
LiveScore Bet3.503.451.86
LowVig3.603.801.96
Marathonbet3.663.551.88
NordicBet3.703.601.88
Paddy Power3.403.601.91
Pinnacle3.773.781.92
PMU3.353.301.77
Sky Bet3.303.501.85
Tipico3.803.701.80
Unibet3.603.551.89
Unibet3.603.551.89
Unibet3.603.601.95
Virgin Bet3.503.451.86
William Hill3.503.301.85

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 8.8%

  • Over 2.5

    1.70 at GTbets +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8554.1% implieddifference −4.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.20 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1845.9% implieddifference +0.5pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.641.952.2623 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.652.10
BetRivers1.652.10
Betsson1.682.12
Casumo1.652.10
Grosvenor1.652.10
GTbetsBest price: 1.702.12
LeoVegas1.642.10
LeoVegas1.632.07
NordicBet1.682.12
PMU1.562.00
Tipico1.60Best price: 2.20
Unibet1.652.10
Unibet1.652.10
William Hill1.702.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3

    2.15 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3

    1.71 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.661.932.2023 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetOnline2.081.70
BetUS2.10Best price: 1.71
CoolbetBest price: 2.151.68
LowVig2.081.70

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

  • Both teams score

    1.62 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7058.8% implieddifference −2.9pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.31 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4341.2% implieddifference −2.1pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.541.972.3923 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.622.20
LeoVegas1.552.20
LiveScore Bet1.552.20
Pinnacle1.62Best price: 2.31
Virgin Bet1.552.20
William Hill1.572.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Necaxa 8d, América 8d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Necaxa.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Necaxa vs América?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes América the most likely outcome at 50%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 50%.

How does Clauseground predict Necaxa vs América?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →