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Liga MX

León vs FC Juárez — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    León

    57% means we estimate about 57 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: León 57% · Draw 24% · FC Juárez 19%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    FC Juárez

    5.50 decimal odds

    FanDuel · US +450

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.50 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.3 percentage points

    Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Leónmodel 49% · market 59% (model vs market −9.6pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +3.5pp)
FC Juárezmodel 24% · market 18% (model vs market +6.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 33 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

  • León

    1.66 at BetRivers +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7059.0% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Draw

    4.40 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.3323.1% implieddifference +0.4pp

  • FC Juárez

    5.50 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.5717.9% implieddifference −0.2pp

León held from 1.61 to 1.61 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.203.585.9621 Sept, 01 UTC23 Sept, 14 UTC
LeónDrawFC Juárez
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9–33 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 33 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLeónDrawFC JuárezCollected
888sport1.573.604.80
Betano1.554.205.00
Betclic1.534.004.85
Betfred1.534.004.60
BetOnline1.614.185.32
BetRiversBest price: 1.663.954.35
Betsson1.603.854.90
BetUS1.614.205.30
BetVictor1.554.205.00
BoyleSports1.553.804.75
Casumo1.663.954.35
Coolbet1.574.305.25
DraftKings1.594.005.00
Fanatics1.594.305.25
FanDuel1.50Best price: 4.40Best price: 5.50
Grosvenor1.663.954.35
GTbets1.584.085.47
LeoVegas1.613.754.20
LeoVegas1.554.104.80
LiveScore Bet1.623.804.20
LowVig1.614.185.32
Marathonbet1.564.005.15
NordicBet1.603.854.90
Paddy Power1.504.205.00
Pinnacle1.614.115.29
PMU1.553.654.00
Sky Bet1.503.804.60
Tipico1.554.005.20
Unibet1.663.954.35
Unibet1.663.954.35
Unibet1.584.205.00
Virgin Bet1.623.804.20
William Hill1.573.604.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.65 at GTbets

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6959.2% implieddifference −1.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.30 at BetRivers +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4540.8% implieddifference −2.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.451.922.3921 Sept, 01 UTC23 Sept, 14 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.54Best price: 2.30
Betsson1.602.22
Casumo1.542.30
Grosvenor1.542.30
GTbetsBest price: 1.652.20
LeoVegas1.582.18
LeoVegas1.512.28
NordicBet1.602.22
PMU1.472.20
Tipico1.572.25
Unibet1.542.30
Unibet1.542.30
William Hill1.552.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 4.3%

  • Over 3

    2.01 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0848.2% implieddifference −1.6pp

  • Under 3

    1.85 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9351.8% implieddifference −2.2pp

Over 3 held from 1.99 to 1.99 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.811.922.0321 Sept, 02 UTC23 Sept, 14 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetOnline1.941.82
BetUS1.911.83
CoolbetBest price: 2.011.78
LowVig1.941.82
Pinnacle1.99Best price: 1.85

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 8.2%

  • Both teams score

    1.67 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7557.0% implieddifference −2.9pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.23 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3343.0% implieddifference −1.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.461.892.3121 Sept, 01 UTC23 Sept, 14 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.672.10
LeoVegas1.612.05
LiveScore Bet1.54Best price: 2.23
Virgin Bet1.542.23
William Hill1.622.15

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: León 7d, FC Juárez 9d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for León.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

4.40 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.1733 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 24%model 27% · market 23% (model vs market +3.5pp)

estimate 24% · price implies 23% · +5.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 24%; best collected price 4.40 at fanduel implies 23% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

FC Juárez

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

5.50 at FanDuel

combined fair 5.1433 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 19%model 24% · market 18% (model vs market +6.1pp)

estimate 19% · price implies 18% · +7.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts FC Juárez at 19%; best collected price 5.50 at fanduel implies 18% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win León vs FC Juárez?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes León the most likely outcome at 57%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 43%.

How does Clauseground predict León vs FC Juárez?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →