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La Liga

Barcelona vs Getafe — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Barcelona

    85% means we estimate about 85 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Barcelona 85% · Draw 9% · Getafe 6%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    17.50 decimal odds

    Betus · US +1650

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 17.50 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +3.5 percentage points

    Our estimate is 9%; the price implies 6%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Barcelonamodel 67% · market 91% (model vs market −23.9pp)
Drawmodel 20% · market 5% (model vs market +14.8pp)
Getafemodel 13% · market 3% (model vs market +9.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

16 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Barcelona

    1.08 at BetMGM +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Draw

    17.50 at BetUS +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Getafe

    25.00 at LeoVegas +2

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

-1.7913.0427.8723 Sept, 05 UTC26 Sept, 04 UTC
BarcelonaDrawGetafe
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–36 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 36 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookBarcelonaDrawGetafeCollected
Betano1.0510.0023.00
Betclic1.0410.0024.00
BetVictor1.0510.0023.00
Betway1.0517.0023.00
DraftKings1.0514.0023.00
Everygame1.0413.0021.00
Ladbrokes1.0713.0023.00
LeoVegas1.0511.0023.00
LeoVegas1.0413.00Best price: 25.00
LiveScore Bet1.0413.0025.00
PMU1.0212.5023.00
Tipico1.0417.0025.00
Unibet1.038.8021.00
Virgin Bet1.0313.0023.00
Winamax1.0315.0021.00
Winamax1.0214.5020.00
Betfred1.0613.00—
BetMGMBest price: 1.0813.50—
BetRivers1.0515.00—
Betsson1.0512.00—
BetUS1.05Best price: 17.50—
Bovada1.0517.00—
BoyleSports1.0513.00—
Codere1.0613.00—
Coolbet1.0613.00—
Coral1.0813.00—
FanDuel1.0513.00—
Grosvenor1.0716.00—
NordicBet1.0511.50—
Paddy Power1.0414.00—
Pinnacle1.0517.50—
Sky Bet1.0413.00—
Unibet1.0716.00—
Unibet1.0716.00—
Unibet1.0510.50—
William Hill1.0613.00—

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

10 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 4.5

    2.28 at BetRivers +4

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 4.5

    1.67 at BetMGM

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.601.972.3523 Sept, 05 UTC26 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 10 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM2.10Best price: 1.67
BetRiversBest price: 2.281.60
Codere2.141.61
Grosvenor2.281.60
LeoVegas2.281.60
LeoVegas2.121.62
PMU2.151.51
Tipico2.151.65
Unibet2.281.60
Unibet2.281.61

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • Over 2.5

    1.22 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2778.9% implieddifference −3.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    4.50 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.7521.1% implieddifference −1.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.20 to 1.20 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.812.894.9723 Sept, 05 UTC26 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.224.36
NordicBet1.214.25
William Hill1.20Best price: 4.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.1%

  • Both teams score

    2.38 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3342.9% implieddifference +0.8pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.65 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7557.1% implieddifference −3.5pp

Both teams score held from 2.20 to 2.20 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.562.022.4723 Sept, 05 UTC26 Sept, 04 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 2.381.53
Coral2.251.57
Ladbrokes2.251.57
LeoVegas2.201.58
LiveScore Bet2.181.61
Paddy Power2.251.57
Virgin Bet2.181.61
William Hill2.20Best price: 1.65

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Barcelona 21d, Getafe 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Barcelona.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+5.2pp differencecombined

2.38 at Betfred

combined fair 2.128 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 47%model 55% · market 43% (model vs market +12.5pp)

estimate 47% · price implies 42% · +12.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 47%; best collected price 2.38 at betfred_uk implies 42% — a +5.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+3.5pp differencecombined

17.50 at BetUS

combined fair 10.9136 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 9%model 20% · market 5% (model vs market +14.8pp)

estimate 9% · price implies 6% · +60.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 9%; best collected price 17.50 at betus implies 6% — a +3.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Barcelona vs Getafe?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Barcelona the most likely outcome at 85%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 15%.

How does Clauseground predict Barcelona vs Getafe?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →