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Ligue 1

Rennes vs Auxerre — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Rennes

    61% means we estimate about 61 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Rennes 61% · Draw 21% · Auxerre 18%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Auxerre

    7.50 decimal odds

    Leovegas se · US +650

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 7.50 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +4.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 18%; the price implies 13%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Rennesmodel 41% · market 67% (model vs market −26.0pp)
Drawmodel 29% · market 19% (model vs market +9.9pp)
Auxerremodel 30% · market 14% (model vs market +16.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 34 books quote this market · margin removed 5.7%

  • Rennes

    1.44 at BetMGM +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4967.1% implieddifference −2.3pp

  • Draw

    5.25 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.3518.7% implieddifference −0.3pp

  • Auxerre

    7.50 at LeoVegas +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 7.0514.2% implieddifference +0.9pp

Rennes held from 1.41 to 1.41 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.714.478.2322 Sept, 11 UTC25 Sept, 10 UTC
RennesDrawAuxerre
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–36 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 34 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookRennesDrawAuxerreCollected
888sport1.404.606.00
Betclic1.374.806.25
Betfred1.405.007.00
BetMGMBest price: 1.444.806.50
BetRivers1.384.807.00
BetUS1.414.906.50
Betway1.385.006.00
Bovada1.414.906.50
BoyleSports1.364.756.00
Codere1.435.006.60
Coolbet1.43Best price: 5.257.25
Coral1.444.806.50
DraftKings1.415.006.50
Everygame1.364.756.25
FanDuel1.375.107.00
Grosvenor1.404.907.00
Ladbrokes1.444.806.50
LeoVegas1.435.10Best price: 7.50
LeoVegas1.404.806.25
LiveScore Bet1.374.606.50
Marathonbet1.425.107.00
Paddy Power1.364.756.50
Pinnacle1.415.066.67
PMU1.354.506.50
Suprabets1.384.806.30
Tipico1.375.206.70
Unibet1.435.107.50
Unibet1.414.907.50
Unibet1.404.756.50
Unibet1.344.505.80
Virgin Bet1.374.606.50
William Hill1.404.606.00
Winamax1.384.905.90
Winamax1.384.905.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.28 at Unibet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.68 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.611.982.3522 Sept, 11 UTC25 Sept, 10 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.
Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM2.151.62
BetRivers2.231.63
Bovada2.22Best price: 1.68
Codere2.141.60
Grosvenor2.231.63
LeoVegas2.231.63
LeoVegas2.121.62
PMU2.101.54
Tipico2.101.67
UnibetBest price: 2.281.65
Unibet2.231.63

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.1%

  • Both teams score

    1.67 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7557.1% implieddifference −2.7pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.20 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3342.9% implieddifference −2.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.65 to 1.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.611.942.2622 Sept, 11 UTC25 Sept, 10 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.672.10
Coral1.672.10
Ladbrokes1.652.10
LeoVegas1.642.10
LiveScore Bet1.672.10
Virgin Bet1.672.10
William Hill1.65Best price: 2.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Rennes 22d, Auxerre 21d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Rennes.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Auxerre

Match result+4.9pp differencecombined

7.50 at LeoVegas

combined fair 5.4935 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 30% · market 14% (model vs market +16.1pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 13% · +36.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Auxerre at 18%; best collected price 7.50 at leovegas_se implies 13% — a +4.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+2.1pp differencecombined

5.25 at Coolbet

combined fair 4.7235 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 29% · market 19% (model vs market +9.9pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 19% · +11.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 21%; best collected price 5.25 at coolbet implies 19% — a +2.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Rennes vs Auxerre?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Rennes the most likely outcome at 61%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 39%.

How does Clauseground predict Rennes vs Auxerre?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →