Lorient vs Paris FC — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Paris FC
38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Lorient 33% · Draw 29% · Paris FC 38%
2 · Understand the price
Lorient
3.10 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +210
collected 18:48 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.10 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 32%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 18:49 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Lorientmodel 41% · market 31% (model vs market +9.9pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 29% (model vs market −0.3pp)

Paris FCmodel 31% · market 40% (model vs market −9.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

18:48 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%

Lorient
3.10 at Marathonbet +1
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 3.2430.8% implieddifference −1.4pp
Draw
3.60 at Coolbet +2
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 3.4728.8% implieddifference +1.0pp
Paris FC
2.43 at LeoVegas +1
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4840.4% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Lorient	3.10Marathonbet +1	18:48 UTC	3.2430.8% implied	−1.4pp
Draw	3.60Coolbet +2	18:48 UTC	3.4728.8% implied	+1.0pp
Paris FC	2.43LeoVegas +1	18:48 UTC	2.4840.4% implied	−0.8pp

Lorient held from 3.09 to 3.09 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

LorientDrawParis FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 37 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Lorient	Draw	Paris FC	Collected
888sport	2.90	3.25	2.30	18:48 UTC
Betclic	2.95	3.30	2.18	18:48 UTC
Betfred	3.00	3.50	2.30	18:48 UTC
BetMGM	2.95	3.40	2.35	18:48 UTC
BetRivers	2.85	3.40	2.35	18:48 UTC
Betsson	3.05	3.30	2.32	18:48 UTC
BetUS	2.95	3.35	2.30	18:48 UTC
Betway	2.90	3.25	2.25	18:48 UTC
Bovada	2.95	3.35	2.30	18:48 UTC
BoyleSports	2.88	3.25	2.25	18:48 UTC
Codere	3.05	3.40	2.33	18:48 UTC
Coolbet	3.00	Best price: 3.60	2.40	18:48 UTC
Coral	3.00	3.40	2.30	18:48 UTC
DraftKings	3.00	3.35	2.30	18:48 UTC
Everygame	2.95	3.20	2.30	18:48 UTC
FanDuel	2.90	3.50	2.30	18:48 UTC
Grosvenor	2.88	3.50	2.38	18:48 UTC
Ladbrokes	3.00	3.40	2.30	18:48 UTC
LeoVegas	2.95	3.60	Best price: 2.43	18:48 UTC
LeoVegas	2.90	3.30	2.25	18:48 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.75	3.30	2.28	18:48 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 3.10	3.38	2.36	18:48 UTC
NordicBet	3.05	3.30	2.32	18:48 UTC
Paddy Power	2.88	3.40	2.25	18:48 UTC
Pinnacle	3.09	3.31	2.36	18:48 UTC
PMU	2.75	3.25	2.25	18:48 UTC
Sky Bet	2.88	3.40	2.30	18:48 UTC
Suprabets	2.96	3.18	2.29	18:48 UTC
Tipico	3.10	3.30	2.25	18:48 UTC
Unibet	3.00	3.30	2.25	18:48 UTC
Unibet	2.95	3.60	2.43	18:48 UTC
Unibet	2.90	3.50	2.38	18:48 UTC
Unibet	2.85	3.20	2.15	18:48 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.75	3.30	2.28	18:48 UTC
William Hill	2.90	3.25	2.30	18:48 UTC
Winamax	2.85	3.35	2.20	18:48 UTC
Winamax	2.85	3.35	2.20	18:48 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

18:48 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 17 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%

Over 2.5
1.91 at BetUS +1
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9950.3% implieddifference −2.1pp
Under 2.5
2.02 at Unibet
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0149.7% implieddifference +0.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.91BetUS +1	18:48 UTC	1.9950.3% implied	−2.1pp
Under 2.5	2.02Unibet	18:48 UTC	2.0149.7% implied	+0.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.91 to 1.91 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17–18 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 17 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.77	1.93	18:48 UTC
BetRivers	1.79	1.97	18:48 UTC
Betsson	1.86	1.97	18:48 UTC
BetUS	Best price: 1.91	1.87	18:48 UTC
Bovada	1.87	1.95	18:48 UTC
Codere	1.81	1.86	18:48 UTC
Coolbet	1.85	1.96	18:48 UTC
Grosvenor	1.79	1.97	18:48 UTC
LeoVegas	1.80	1.88	18:48 UTC
LeoVegas	1.79	1.97	18:48 UTC
NordicBet	1.82	1.95	18:48 UTC
Pinnacle	1.91	1.93	18:48 UTC
PMU	1.70	1.88	18:48 UTC
Tipico	1.83	1.93	18:48 UTC
Unibet	1.82	Best price: 2.02	18:48 UTC
Unibet	1.79	1.97	18:48 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.91	18:48 UTC

Both teams to score

18:48 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.1%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7557.1% implieddifference −2.7pp
Not both teams score
2.20 at William Hill
collected 18:48 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3342.9% implieddifference −2.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred	18:48 UTC	1.7557.1% implied	−2.7pp
Not both teams score	2.20William Hill	18:48 UTC	2.3342.9% implied	−2.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.65 to 1.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	18:48 UTC
Coral	1.61	2.15	18:48 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.61	2.15	18:48 UTC
LeoVegas	1.64	2.10	18:48 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.62	2.18	18:48 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.62	2.18	18:48 UTC
William Hill	1.65	Best price: 2.20	18:48 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Lorient 21d, Paris FC 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Lorient.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Lorient

Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

3.10 at Marathonbet

combined fair 3.0037 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 33%model 41% · market 31% (model vs market +9.9pp)

estimate 33% · price implies 32% · +3.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Lorient at 33%; best collected price 3.10 at marathonbet implies 32% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 18:49 UTC

Draw

Match result+0.9pp differencecombined

3.60 at Coolbet

combined fair 3.4837 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 29%model 29% · market 29% (model vs market −0.3pp)

estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.60 at coolbet implies 28% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 18:49 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Lorient vs Paris FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Paris FC the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Lorient vs Paris FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.