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Ligue 1

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans FC — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Paris Saint Germain

    83% means we estimate about 83 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Paris Saint Germain 83% · Draw 11% · Le Mans FC 6%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    13.00 decimal odds

    Tipico de · US +1200

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 13.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 11%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Paris Saint Germainmodel 74% · market 86% (model vs market −12.0pp)
Drawmodel 17% · market 8% (model vs market +8.8pp)
Le Mans FCmodel 9% · market 6% (model vs market +3.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 35 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • Paris Saint Germain

    1.12 at BetMGM +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.1686.1% implieddifference −3.2pp

  • Draw

    13.00 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 11.988.3% implieddifference +0.7pp

  • Le Mans FC

    25.00 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 17.915.6% implieddifference +1.6pp

Paris Saint Germain held from 1.10 to 1.10 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-1.7513.0627.8723 Sept, 10 UTC26 Sept, 09 UTC
Paris Saint GermainDrawLe Mans FC
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 37 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookParis Saint GermainDrawLe Mans FCCollected
888sport1.0811.0021.00
Betclic1.079.2518.25
Betfred1.1010.0021.00
BetMGMBest price: 1.1210.0018.00
BetRivers1.0910.0019.00
BetUS1.0810.0018.00
Betway1.0911.0015.00
Bovada1.0810.0018.00
BoyleSports1.1010.0017.00
Caesars1.1010.0018.00
Codere1.1011.0021.00
Coolbet1.1111.00Best price: 25.00
Coral1.1210.0017.00
DraftKings1.0911.0017.00
FanDuel1.0710.0021.00
Grosvenor1.1010.5020.00
Ladbrokes1.1210.0017.00
LeoVegas1.1211.0023.00
LeoVegas1.089.5017.00
LiveScore Bet1.089.0017.00
Marathonbet1.1011.5023.00
Paddy Power1.0610.0020.00
Pinnacle1.1011.3416.96
PMU1.079.0016.00
Sky Bet1.0710.5019.00
Suprabets1.0810.0015.00
Tipico1.07Best price: 13.0017.00
Unibet1.1211.0023.00
Unibet1.1110.5020.00
Unibet1.089.0019.00
Unibet1.0710.0018.00
Virgin Bet1.089.0017.00
William Hill1.0811.0021.00
Winamax1.0710.0015.00
Winamax1.0710.0015.00
Betsson1.118.30—
NordicBet1.118.40—

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

8 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 4.5

    2.33 at Unibet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 4.5

    1.62 at Unibet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.531.982.4223 Sept, 10 UTC26 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM2.251.57
BetRivers2.301.60
Grosvenor2.301.60
LeoVegas2.301.60
PMU2.171.51
Tipico2.251.60
UnibetBest price: 2.33Best price: 1.62
Unibet2.301.60

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 5.8%

  • Over 2.5

    1.25 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2977.5% implieddifference −2.5pp

  • Under 2.5

    4.20 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.4422.5% implieddifference −1.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.22 to 1.22 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.902.734.5523 Sept, 10 UTC26 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.254.02
NordicBet1.243.95
William Hill1.22Best price: 4.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.95 at Coral +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −2.1pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.85 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference −3.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.91 to 1.91 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.831.922.0223 Sept, 10 UTC26 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.911.80
CoralBest price: 1.951.75
Ladbrokes1.951.75
LeoVegas1.951.77
LiveScore Bet1.881.84
Paddy Power1.951.75
Virgin Bet1.881.84
William Hill1.91Best price: 1.85

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Paris Saint Germain 20d, Le Mans FC 21d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Paris Saint Germain.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+2.9pp differencecombined

13.00 at Tipico

combined fair 9.4738 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 11%model 17% · market 8% (model vs market +8.8pp)

estimate 11% · price implies 8% · +37.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 11%; best collected price 13.00 at tipico_de implies 8% — a +2.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Under 2.5

Totals+1.3pp differencecombined

4.20 at William Hill

combined fair 3.983 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 33% · market 23% (model vs market +10.5pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 24% · +5.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 25%; best collected price 4.20 at williamhill implies 24% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely outcome at 83%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 17%.

How does Clauseground predict Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →