RC Lens vs Lyon — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
RC Lens
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: RC Lens 41% · Draw 26% · Lyon 33%
2 · Understand the price
Lyon
3.25 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +225
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.25 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 31%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%
RC Lens
2.25 at Coolbet
collected
no-vig reference 2.3043.5% implieddifference −1.0pp
Draw
3.90 at LeoVegas +1
collected
no-vig reference 3.9725.2% implieddifference −0.4pp
Lyon
3.25 at LeoVegas +1
collected
no-vig reference 3.1931.3% implieddifference +0.6pp
Draw held from 3.79 to 3.78 (−0.3%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
| Book | RC Lens | Draw | Lyon | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Betclic | 2.08 | 3.60 | 2.93 | |
| Betfred | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.00 | |
| BetMGM | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.95 | |
| BetRivers | 2.08 | 3.70 | 3.10 | |
| Betsson | 2.18 | 3.65 | 3.05 | |
| BetUS | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.95 | |
| Betway | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.90 | |
| Bovada | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.95 | |
| BoyleSports | 2.05 | 3.60 | 2.80 | |
| Caesars | 2.15 | 3.65 | 2.97 | |
| Codere | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.05 | |
| Coolbet | Best price: 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.10 | |
| Coral | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.00 | |
| DraftKings | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.90 | |
| Fanatics | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.10 | |
| FanDuel | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.95 | |
| Grosvenor | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.15 | |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.90 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.16 | Best price: 3.90 | Best price: 3.25 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.00 | |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.72 | 3.12 | |
| NordicBet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.05 | |
| Paddy Power | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.88 | |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.78 | 3.04 | |
| PMU | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.90 | |
| Suprabets | 2.12 | 3.63 | 2.92 | |
| Tipico | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 | |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.90 | 3.25 | |
| Unibet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 | |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.80 | 3.20 | |
| Unibet | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.80 | |
| Virgin Bet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.00 | |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Winamax | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.85 | |
| Winamax | 2.10 | 3.70 | 2.85 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
9 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.38 at Bovada
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.62 at Unibet
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected
| Book | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Bovada | Best price: 2.38 | 1.60 | |
| Codere | 2.28 | 1.53 | |
| Grosvenor | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| PMU | 2.17 | 1.51 | |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| Unibet | 2.33 | Best price: 1.62 | |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 1.60 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 5.7%
Over 2.5
1.57 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 1.6660.3% implieddifference −3.4pp
Under 2.5
2.47 at Betsson
collected
no-vig reference 2.5239.7% implieddifference −0.7pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.54 | 2.30 | |
| Betsson | 1.56 | Best price: 2.47 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| NordicBet | 1.52 | 2.42 | |
| William Hill | Best price: 1.57 | 2.38 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.7%
Both teams score
1.50 at Betfred +3
collected
no-vig reference 1.6062.5% implieddifference −4.2pp
Not both teams score
2.63 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected
no-vig reference 2.6737.5% implieddifference −0.5pp
Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred | Best price: 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Coral | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| Ladbrokes | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.44 | Best price: 2.63 | |
| Paddy Power | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: RC Lens 21d, Lyon 20d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for RC Lens.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Lyon
Match result+2.4pp differencecombined3.25 at LeoVegas
combined fair 3.0138 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 33% · price implies 31% · +7.9% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Lyon at 33%; best collected price 3.25 at leovegas_se implies 31% — a +2.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Questions
Who is most likely to win RC Lens vs Lyon?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes RC Lens the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.
How does Clauseground predict RC Lens vs Lyon?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.