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Serie A

Atalanta BC vs Venezia — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Atalanta BC

    58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Atalanta BC 58% · Draw 24% · Venezia 17%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    4.35 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +335

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.35 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.3 percentage points

    Our estimate is 24%; the price implies 23%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Atalanta BCmodel 61% · market 58% (model vs market +3.3pp)
Drawmodel 22% · market 25% (model vs market −3.1pp)
Veneziamodel 17% · market 17% (model vs market −0.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 40 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%

  • Atalanta BC

    1.65 at Betsson +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6859.6% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • Draw

    4.35 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.1823.9% implieddifference +1.0pp

  • Venezia

    5.78 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.0916.4% implieddifference −0.9pp

Atalanta BC held from 1.59 to 1.59 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.153.746.3225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Atalanta BCDrawVenezia
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 37–40 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 40 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookAtalanta BCDrawVeneziaCollected
888sport1.613.705.00
Betano1.574.205.00
Betclic1.554.054.85
Betfair Sportsbook1.624.104.75
Betfred1.604.205.00
BetMGM1.624.105.25
BetRivers1.614.104.75
BetssonBest price: 1.653.905.45
BetUS1.604.005.20
BetVictor1.574.205.00
Betway1.573.805.25
Bovada1.604.005.20
BoyleSports1.533.805.00
Caesars1.594.055.00
Codere1.624.205.00
Coolbet1.653.805.60
Coral1.614.005.25
DraftKings1.563.755.00
Everygame1.553.755.50
FanDuel1.594.204.80
Grosvenor1.624.254.90
Ladbrokes1.614.005.25
LeoVegas1.604.104.70
LeoVegas1.584.004.75
LiveScore Bet1.584.004.50
Marathonbet1.624.055.50
NordicBet1.623.855.40
Paddy Power1.604.004.75
Pinnacle1.593.96Best price: 5.78
PMU1.604.104.70
Sky Bet1.624.004.75
Tipico1.554.205.70
Unibet1.65Best price: 4.355.00
Unibet1.654.355.00
Unibet1.604.004.75
Unibet1.494.004.80
Virgin Bet1.584.004.50
William Hill1.623.705.00
Winamax1.584.204.70
Winamax1.544.004.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.61 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7059.0% implieddifference −3.1pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.40 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4441.0% implieddifference −0.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.60 to 1.60 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.512.012.5125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.542.30
Betsson1.602.36
BovadaBest price: 1.612.36
Codere1.532.28
LeoVegas1.522.30
NordicBet1.582.32
Tipico1.55Best price: 2.40
William Hill1.602.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

6 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.30 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.61 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.511.962.4125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–7 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetRivers2.281.60
Grosvenor2.281.60
LeoVegasBest price: 2.30Best price: 1.61
PMU2.161.51
Unibet2.301.61
Unibet2.281.60

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

  • Both teams score

    1.62 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7258.1% implieddifference −3.6pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.33 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3941.9% implieddifference −1.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.531.982.4225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.622.20
Coral1.612.20
Ladbrokes1.612.20
LeoVegas1.572.25
LiveScore Bet1.54Best price: 2.33
Paddy Power1.572.25
Virgin Bet1.542.33
William Hill1.622.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Atalanta BC 30d, Venezia 23d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Atalanta BC.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Atalanta BC vs Venezia?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Atalanta BC the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.

How does Clauseground predict Atalanta BC vs Venezia?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →