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Serie A

Cagliari vs Juventus — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Juventus

    58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Cagliari 18% · Draw 24% · Juventus 58%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Cagliari

    7.00 decimal odds

    FanDuel · US +600

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 7.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +3.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 18%; the price implies 14%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Cagliarimodel 27% · market 15% (model vs market +11.8pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +3.9pp)
Juventusmodel 46% · market 62% (model vs market −15.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 41 books quote this market · margin removed 5.7%

  • Cagliari

    7.00 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.7114.9% implieddifference +0.6pp

  • Draw

    4.06 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.2923.3% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Juventus

    1.60 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6261.8% implieddifference −0.7pp

Cagliari held from 6.35 to 6.35 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.924.297.6525 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
CagliariDrawJuventus
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 37–41 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 41 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookCagliariDrawJuventusCollected
888sport6.003.801.53
Betano6.003.901.53
Betclic5.903.831.50
Betfair Sportsbook6.503.901.50
Betfred6.004.001.57
BetMGM6.004.001.57
BetRivers6.003.801.56
Betsson6.403.901.55
BetUS6.003.951.54
BetVictor6.003.901.53
Betway5.754.001.50
Bovada6.003.951.54
BoyleSports6.003.801.50
Caesars6.003.951.53
Codere6.204.001.57
Coolbet6.204.001.57
Coral6.004.001.57
DraftKings5.753.801.50
Everygame6.003.901.50
Fanatics6.004.001.56
FanDuelBest price: 7.003.901.48
Grosvenor6.103.851.57
Ladbrokes6.004.001.55
LeoVegas5.753.751.53
LeoVegas5.753.701.55
LiveScore Bet5.603.651.54
Marathonbet6.454.001.56
NordicBet6.303.851.55
Paddy Power6.503.801.50
Pinnacle6.35Best price: 4.061.53
PMU5.803.751.56
Sky Bet6.503.901.50
Tipico6.803.901.52
Unibet6.253.95Best price: 1.60
Unibet6.253.951.60
Unibet6.003.801.54
Unibet5.803.801.44
Virgin Bet5.603.651.54
William Hill6.003.801.55
Winamax5.603.951.52
Winamax5.403.801.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 17 books quote this market · margin removed 4.4%

  • Over 2.5

    2.02 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1047.7% implieddifference −1.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    1.90 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9152.3% implieddifference −0.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.01 to 2.01 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.881.972.0725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 17 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.951.74
BetRivers2.001.77
Betsson2.001.83
BetUS1.981.85
Bovada1.981.85
Codere1.941.74
Coolbet1.99Best price: 1.90
Grosvenor2.001.77
LeoVegasBest price: 2.021.79
LeoVegas1.911.77
NordicBet1.981.82
Pinnacle2.011.83
PMU1.881.68
Tipico1.951.80
Unibet2.021.79
Unibet2.001.77
William Hill1.951.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

  • Both teams score

    2.05 at Coral +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1446.7% implieddifference −2.1pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.75 at Paddy Power +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8853.3% implieddifference −3.8pp

Both teams score held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.711.922.1425 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred2.001.73
CoralBest price: 2.051.70
Ladbrokes2.051.70
LeoVegas1.981.73
LiveScore Bet1.981.73
Paddy Power1.95Best price: 1.75
Virgin Bet1.981.73
William Hill2.001.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Cagliari 22d, Juventus 21d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Cagliari.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Cagliari

Match result+3.6pp differencecombined

7.00 at FanDuel

combined fair 5.6041 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 27% · market 15% (model vs market +11.8pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 14% · +24.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Cagliari at 18%; best collected price 7.00 at fanduel implies 14% — a +3.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+1.7pp differencecombined

2.05 at Coral

combined fair 1.988 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 50%model 58% · market 47% (model vs market +10.9pp)

estimate 50% · price implies 49% · +3.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 50%; best collected price 2.05 at coral implies 49% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Cagliari vs Juventus?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Juventus the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.

How does Clauseground predict Cagliari vs Juventus?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →