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Serie A

Lazio vs Monza — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Lazio

    56% means we estimate about 56 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Lazio 56% · Draw 25% · Monza 19%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Monza

    5.45 decimal odds

    Marathonbet · US +445

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.45 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Laziomodel 50% · market 58% (model vs market −7.5pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 24% (model vs market +1.9pp)
Monzamodel 23% · market 18% (model vs market +5.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%

  • Lazio

    1.74 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7357.9% implieddifference +0.4pp

  • Draw

    3.90 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.1124.3% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Monza

    5.45 at Marathonbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.6217.8% implieddifference −0.5pp

Lazio held from 1.64 to 1.64 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.293.625.9523 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
LazioDrawMonza
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–39 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLazioDrawMonzaCollected
888sport1.703.504.75
Betano1.613.755.25
Betclic1.593.554.75
Betfred1.703.755.00
BetMGM1.693.755.25
BetRivers1.703.654.80
Betsson1.683.655.40
BetUS1.663.755.00
BetVictor1.613.755.25
Betway1.613.804.75
Bovada1.663.755.00
BoyleSports1.603.804.75
Caesars1.653.705.00
Codere1.683.805.20
Coolbet1.683.805.25
Coral1.673.755.25
DraftKings1.623.654.70
FanDuel1.613.705.10
Grosvenor1.713.704.90
Ladbrokes1.673.705.00
LeoVegas1.683.604.70
LeoVegas1.643.654.80
LiveScore Bet1.663.504.60
Marathonbet1.663.85Best price: 5.45
NordicBet1.683.605.40
Paddy Power1.653.604.75
Pinnacle1.64Best price: 3.905.33
PMU1.683.604.75
Sky Bet1.673.605.00
Tipico1.653.805.20
UnibetBest price: 1.743.805.10
Unibet1.743.805.10
Unibet1.653.705.00
Unibet1.533.604.80
Virgin Bet1.663.504.60
William Hill1.703.504.75
Winamax1.643.804.70
Winamax1.603.654.60

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 17 books quote this market · margin removed 4.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.97 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0449.1% implieddifference −1.7pp

  • Under 2.5

    1.92 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9650.9% implieddifference −1.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.95 to 1.95 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.801.982.1523 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 17 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.911.77
BetRivers1.941.82
BetssonBest price: 1.971.86
BetUS1.951.87
Bovada1.951.87
Codere1.891.78
Coolbet1.97Best price: 1.92
Grosvenor1.941.82
LeoVegas1.951.83
LeoVegas1.881.80
NordicBet1.951.82
Pinnacle1.951.88
PMU1.831.72
Tipico1.901.85
Unibet1.951.83
Unibet1.941.82
William Hill1.951.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

  • Both teams score

    1.91 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.4pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.85 at LiveScore Bet +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −4.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.831.922.0223 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.911.80
Coral1.911.80
Ladbrokes1.911.80
LeoVegas1.881.83
LiveScore Bet1.85Best price: 1.85
Paddy Power1.911.80
Virgin Bet1.851.85
William Hill1.851.85

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Lazio 22d, Monza 23d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Lazio.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+0.8pp differencecombined

1.91 at Betfred

combined fair 1.888 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 53%model 59% · market 50% (model vs market +9.1pp)

estimate 53% · price implies 52% · +1.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 53%; best collected price 1.91 at betfred_uk implies 52% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Monza

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

5.45 at Marathonbet

combined fair 5.2138 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 19%model 23% · market 18% (model vs market +5.6pp)

estimate 19% · price implies 18% · +4.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Monza at 19%; best collected price 5.45 at marathonbet implies 18% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Lazio vs Monza?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lazio the most likely outcome at 56%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 44%.

How does Clauseground predict Lazio vs Monza?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →