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Serie A

Lecce vs Bologna — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Bologna

    46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Lecce 25% · Draw 29% · Bologna 46%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Lecce

    4.40 decimal odds

    Pinnacle · US +340

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.40 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.3 percentage points

    Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 23%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Leccemodel 35% · market 22% (model vs market +13.8pp)
Drawmodel 28% · market 29% (model vs market −0.5pp)
Bolognamodel 36% · market 50% (model vs market −13.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 36 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

  • Lecce

    4.40 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.6321.6% implieddifference −1.1pp

  • Draw

    3.55 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.4628.9% implieddifference +0.7pp

  • Bologna

    2.00 at Coolbet +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0249.5% implieddifference −0.5pp

Lecce shortened from 4.44 to 4.40 (−0.9%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.693.294.8823 Sept, 08 UTC26 Sept, 07 UTC
LecceDrawBologna
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–37 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 36 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLecceDrawBolognaCollected
888sport3.803.301.91
Betclic3.783.231.83
Betfred4.003.501.91
BetMGM4.103.301.95
BetRivers3.753.451.93
Betsson4.153.301.95
BetUS4.103.301.91
Betway4.203.251.85
Bovada4.103.301.91
BoyleSports4.003.251.87
Caesars4.003.401.91
Codere4.003.451.95
Coolbet4.203.20Best price: 2.00
Coral4.003.301.95
DraftKings3.953.201.87
FanDuel3.803.401.95
Grosvenor3.853.501.95
Ladbrokes4.003.301.95
LeoVegas3.803.251.92
LeoVegas3.703.351.92
LiveScore Bet3.603.301.90
Marathonbet4.303.381.94
NordicBet4.103.301.95
Paddy Power3.753.401.91
PinnacleBest price: 4.403.291.92
PMU3.703.401.93
Sky Bet3.753.401.95
Tipico4.303.401.87
Unibet3.90Best price: 3.552.00
Unibet3.903.552.00
Unibet3.903.301.91
Unibet3.803.301.75
Virgin Bet3.603.301.90
William Hill3.803.301.91
Winamax3.803.401.88
Winamax3.653.301.84

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 17 books quote this market · margin removed 4.3%

  • Over 2.5

    2.03 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0947.9% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Under 2.5

    1.86 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9252.1% implieddifference −1.7pp

Under 2.5 shortened from 1.85 to 1.84 (−0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.841.942.0523 Sept, 08 UTC26 Sept, 07 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17–18 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 17 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.951.74
BetRivers1.931.83
Betsson2.001.83
BetUS2.021.82
Bovada2.021.82
Codere1.941.74
CoolbetBest price: 2.03Best price: 1.86
Grosvenor1.931.83
LeoVegas1.941.83
LeoVegas1.921.75
NordicBet1.981.82
Pinnacle2.001.84
PMU1.831.73
Tipico1.931.83
Unibet1.941.83
Unibet1.931.83
William Hill2.001.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Both teams score

    1.83 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9451.6% implieddifference −3.1pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.96 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0748.4% implieddifference −2.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.83 to 1.83 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.811.901.9923 Sept, 08 UTC26 Sept, 07 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.831.83
Coral1.801.95
Ladbrokes1.801.91
LeoVegas1.771.92
LiveScore Bet1.76Best price: 1.96
Paddy Power1.801.91
Virgin Bet1.761.96
William Hill1.831.95

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Lecce 21d, Bologna 22d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Lecce.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Lecce

Match result+2.3pp differencecombined

4.40 at Pinnacle

combined fair 3.9937 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 35% · market 22% (model vs market +13.8pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 23% · +10.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Lecce at 25%; best collected price 4.40 at pinnacle implies 23% — a +2.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

3.55 at Unibet

combined fair 3.4837 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 29%model 28% · market 29% (model vs market −0.5pp)

estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +2.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.55 at unibet_nl implies 28% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Lecce vs Bologna?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bologna the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.

How does Clauseground predict Lecce vs Bologna?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →