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Serie A

Como vs AS Roma — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    AS Roma

    38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Como 35% · Draw 27% · AS Roma 38%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    AS Roma

    2.80 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +180

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.80 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.0 percentage points

    Our estimate is 38%; the price implies 36%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Comomodel 32% · market 36% (model vs market −4.2pp)
Drawmodel 28% · market 27% (model vs market +1.2pp)
AS Romamodel 40% · market 37% (model vs market +3.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

  • Como

    2.62 at Betsson +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7536.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

  • Draw

    3.60 at Betfred +7

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7426.7% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • AS Roma

    2.80 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7136.9% implieddifference +1.2pp

Como drifted from 2.55 to 2.62 (+2.7%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.423.133.8421 Sept, 14 UTC24 Sept, 13 UTC
ComoDrawAS Roma
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookComoDrawAS RomaCollected
888sport2.453.302.62
Betano2.553.502.50
Betclic2.403.332.48
Betfred2.60Best price: 3.602.50
BetMGM2.553.602.60
BetRivers2.433.452.70
BetssonBest price: 2.623.502.62
BetUS2.553.452.60
BetVictor2.553.502.50
Betway2.503.502.50
Bovada2.553.452.60
BoyleSports2.383.602.50
Codere2.603.552.60
Coolbet2.553.502.70
Coral2.503.602.60
DraftKings2.453.352.55
Everygame2.553.402.50
FanDuel2.553.402.65
Grosvenor2.453.502.75
Ladbrokes2.503.602.60
LeoVegas2.503.402.55
LeoVegas2.403.402.65
LiveScore Bet2.353.352.63
Marathonbet2.623.552.61
NordicBet2.623.452.62
Paddy Power2.503.302.60
Pinnacle2.623.562.58
PMU2.403.402.65
Sky Bet2.503.402.63
Tipico2.603.602.50
Unibet2.553.402.55
Unibet2.503.60Best price: 2.80
Unibet2.503.602.80
Unibet2.253.402.50
Virgin Bet2.353.352.63
William Hill2.453.302.62
Winamax2.453.502.50
Winamax2.403.402.45

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 6.6%

  • Over 2.5

    1.76 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8454.2% implieddifference −2.6pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.20 at BetUS +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1845.8% implieddifference +0.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.702.002.3121 Sept, 14 UTC24 Sept, 13 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 16–17 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.672.10
BetRivers1.742.05
Betsson1.712.16
BetUS1.71Best price: 2.20
Bovada1.712.15
Codere1.642.08
CoolbetBest price: 1.762.17
Grosvenor1.742.05
LeoVegas1.752.06
LeoVegas1.642.10
NordicBet1.682.12
PMU1.651.93
Tipico1.652.20
Unibet1.752.06
Unibet1.742.05
William Hill1.732.05

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

  • Both teams score

    1.58 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −3.9pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.40 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −1.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.481.992.5021 Sept, 14 UTC24 Sept, 13 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.572.25
Coral1.572.30
Ladbrokes1.552.30
LeoVegas1.532.35
LiveScore BetBest price: 1.582.23
Paddy Power1.50Best price: 2.40
Virgin Bet1.582.23
William Hill1.572.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Como 21d, AS Roma 22d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Como.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

AS Roma

Match result+2.1pp differencecombined

2.80 at Unibet

combined fair 2.6538 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 38%model 40% · market 37% (model vs market +2.9pp)

estimate 38% · price implies 36% · +5.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts AS Roma at 38%; best collected price 2.80 at unibet_nl implies 36% — a +2.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Como vs AS Roma?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Como vs AS Roma?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →