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Serie A

Inter Milan vs Parma — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Inter Milan

    79% means we estimate about 79 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Inter Milan 79% · Draw 13% · Parma 8%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Parma

    21.00 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +2000

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 21.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +3.0 percentage points

    Our estimate is 8%; the price implies 5%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Inter Milanmodel 68% · market 83% (model vs market −14.7pp)
Drawmodel 20% · market 11% (model vs market +9.0pp)
Parmamodel 12% · market 6% (model vs market +5.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

  • Inter Milan

    1.17 at BetMGM +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2083.2% implieddifference −2.3pp

  • Draw

    9.50 at Coolbet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 9.4910.5% implieddifference +0.0pp

  • Parma

    21.00 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 15.846.3% implieddifference +1.5pp

Parma drifted from 14.77 to 15.02 (+1.7%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-1.3411.5824.5026 Sept, 12 UTC29 Sept, 11 UTC
Inter MilanDrawParma
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 37–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookInter MilanDrawParmaCollected
888sport1.148.0015.00
Betano1.118.5018.00
Betclic1.117.5014.25
Betfair Sportsbook1.118.0020.00
Betfred1.148.5017.00
BetMGMBest price: 1.178.2515.00
BetRivers1.128.5018.00
Betsson1.167.1020.00
BetUS1.148.0015.00
BetVictor1.118.5018.00
Betway1.139.0013.00
Bovada1.148.0015.00
BoyleSports1.147.5015.00
Caesars1.138.0016.00
Casumo1.128.5018.00
Codere1.158.4016.00
Coolbet1.13Best price: 9.5016.00
Coral1.178.0015.00
DraftKings1.127.5012.00
Everygame1.128.0013.00
Fanatics1.139.0015.00
FanDuel1.118.0019.00
Grosvenor1.138.5020.00
Ladbrokes1.178.0015.00
LeoVegas1.137.5013.00
LeoVegas1.118.0017.00
LiveScore Bet1.117.5016.00
Marathonbet1.148.8017.25
NordicBet1.167.1020.00
Paddy Power1.108.0019.00
Pinnacle1.149.0015.02
PMU1.128.0017.00
Sky Bet1.138.0019.00
Tipico1.129.5016.00
Unibet1.149.00Best price: 21.00
Unibet1.149.0021.00
Unibet1.147.5015.00
Unibet1.097.3014.00
Virgin Bet1.117.5016.00
William Hill1.148.0015.00
Winamax1.138.0012.50
Winamax1.117.5011.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%

  • Over 3.5

    1.95 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9950.3% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • Under 3.5

    1.97 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0149.7% implieddifference −1.0pp

Over 3.5 shortened from 1.91 to 1.90 (−0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.951.961.9726 Sept, 12 UTC29 Sept, 11 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.851.85
BetRivers1.931.83
BetUS1.931.89
Bovada1.931.89
Casumo1.931.83
Codere1.831.84
CoolbetBest price: 1.951.93
Grosvenor1.931.83
LeoVegas1.931.85
LeoVegas1.801.85
Pinnacle1.901.92
PMU1.831.73
Tipico1.75Best price: 1.97
Unibet1.931.83
Unibet1.931.85

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.36 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4171.0% implieddifference −2.6pp

  • Under 2.5

    3.25 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.4429.0% implieddifference −1.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.33 to 1.33 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.132.313.4826 Sept, 12 UTC29 Sept, 11 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.363.20
NordicBet1.353.15
William Hill1.33Best price: 3.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

  • Both teams score

    2.12 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1446.7% implieddifference −0.5pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.75 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8853.3% implieddifference −3.8pp

Both teams score held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.711.942.1626 Sept, 12 UTC29 Sept, 11 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred2.101.67
Coral2.051.70
Ladbrokes2.051.67
LeoVegas2.021.70
LiveScore BetBest price: 2.121.64
Paddy Power2.101.65
Virgin Bet2.121.64
William Hill2.00Best price: 1.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Inter Milan 21d, Parma 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Inter Milan.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+2.9pp differencecombined

2.12 at LiveScore Bet

combined fair 2.008 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 50%model 56% · market 47% (model vs market +9.6pp)

estimate 50% · price implies 47% · +6.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 50%; best collected price 2.12 at livescorebet implies 47% — a +2.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+2.3pp differencecombined

9.50 at Coolbet

combined fair 7.8242 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 13%model 20% · market 11% (model vs market +9.0pp)

estimate 13% · price implies 11% · +21.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 13%; best collected price 9.50 at coolbet implies 11% — a +2.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Inter Milan vs Parma?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Inter Milan the most likely outcome at 79%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 21%.

How does Clauseground predict Inter Milan vs Parma?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →