LASK vs Liverpool — market analysis & odds

Wed 14 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Liverpool
69% means we estimate about 69 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: LASK 14% · Draw 17% · Liverpool 69%
2 · Understand the price
LASK
13.00 decimal odds
Nordicbet · US +1200
collected 05:50 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 13.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+6.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 14%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 05:50 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

LASKmodel 27% · market 10% (model vs market +17.1pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 14% (model vs market +11.4pp)

Liverpoolmodel 48% · market 77% (model vs market −28.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

05:50 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

LASK
13.00 at NordicBet
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 10.249.8% implieddifference +2.1pp
Draw
6.89 at BetUS +1
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 7.3213.7% implieddifference −0.8pp
Liverpool
1.27 at BetMGM +7
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.3176.6% implieddifference −2.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
LASK	13.00NordicBet	05:50 UTC	10.249.8% implied	+2.1pp
Draw	6.89BetUS +1	05:50 UTC	7.3213.7% implied	−0.8pp
Liverpool	1.27BetMGM +7	05:50 UTC	1.3176.6% implied	−2.2pp

LASK held from 9.64 to 9.64 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

LASKDrawLiverpool

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–37 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 37 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	LASK	Draw	Liverpool	Collected
888sport	9.50	6.00	1.25	05:50 UTC
Betclic	9.50	6.10	1.21	05:50 UTC
Betfred	11.00	6.50	1.22	05:50 UTC
BetMGM	9.75	6.50	Best price: 1.27	05:50 UTC
BetRivers	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
Betsson	12.50	5.90	1.25	05:50 UTC
BetUS	9.64	Best price: 6.89	1.23	05:50 UTC
BetVictor	10.50	6.50	1.22	05:50 UTC
Betway	9.00	6.50	1.22	05:50 UTC
Bovada	10.00	6.50	1.26	05:50 UTC
BoyleSports	11.00	6.00	1.22	05:50 UTC
Codere	10.00	6.60	1.24	05:50 UTC
Coolbet	12.00	6.75	1.25	05:50 UTC
Coral	9.50	6.50	1.25	05:50 UTC
DraftKings	9.50	6.50	1.24	05:50 UTC
FanDuel	10.00	6.00	1.21	05:50 UTC
Grosvenor	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
GTbets	10.65	6.26	1.26	05:50 UTC
Ladbrokes	9.50	6.50	1.25	05:50 UTC
LeoVegas	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
LeoVegas	8.50	6.00	1.21	05:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
Marathonbet	10.75	6.70	1.25	05:50 UTC
NordicBet	Best price: 13.00	6.00	1.26	05:50 UTC
Paddy Power	11.00	6.00	1.22	05:50 UTC
Pinnacle	9.64	6.89	1.23	05:50 UTC
PMU	9.50	5.20	1.25	05:50 UTC
Sky Bet	10.50	6.00	1.22	05:50 UTC
Suprabets	8.90	6.50	1.21	05:50 UTC
Unibet	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
Unibet	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
Unibet	10.00	6.00	1.23	05:50 UTC
Unibet	9.50	6.00	1.21	05:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	10.00	5.40	1.27	05:50 UTC
William Hill	9.50	6.00	1.25	05:50 UTC
Winamax	8.50	6.50	1.22	05:50 UTC
Winamax	8.50	6.50	1.22	05:50 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

05:50 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%

Over 3.5
2.02 at BetRivers +3
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0149.7% implieddifference +0.2pp
Under 3.5
1.90 at BetUS +1
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9950.3% implieddifference −2.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.02BetRivers +3	05:50 UTC	2.0149.7% implied	+0.2pp
Under 3.5	1.90BetUS +1	05:50 UTC	1.9950.3% implied	−2.4pp

Over 3.5 held from 1.92 to 1.92 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.89	1.83	05:50 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 2.02	1.78	05:50 UTC
BetUS	1.92	Best price: 1.90	05:50 UTC
Bovada	1.91	1.83	05:50 UTC
Codere	1.87	1.80	05:50 UTC
Coolbet	1.96	1.85	05:50 UTC
Grosvenor	2.00	1.76	05:50 UTC
GTbets	1.92	1.85	05:50 UTC
LeoVegas	2.02	1.78	05:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.83	1.77	05:50 UTC
Pinnacle	1.92	1.90	05:50 UTC
PMU	1.89	1.68	05:50 UTC
Unibet	2.02	1.78	05:50 UTC
Unibet	2.02	1.78	05:50 UTC

Total goals 2.5

05:50 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 8.0%

Over 2.5
1.38 at Betsson +1
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4768.1% implieddifference −4.4pp
Under 2.5
3.08 at Betsson
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 3.1331.9% implieddifference −0.5pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.38Betsson +1	05:50 UTC	1.4768.1% implied	−4.4pp
Under 2.5	3.08Betsson	05:50 UTC	3.1331.9% implied	−0.5pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.36 to 1.36 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.38	Best price: 3.08	05:50 UTC
NordicBet	1.38	3.05	05:50 UTC
William Hill	1.36	2.90	05:50 UTC

Both teams to score

05:50 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

Both teams score
1.75 at Coral +2
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8553.9% implieddifference −3.2pp
Not both teams score
2.05 at William Hill
collected 05:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1746.1% implieddifference −2.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.75Coral +2	05:50 UTC	1.8553.9% implied	−3.2pp
Not both teams score	2.05William Hill	05:50 UTC	2.1746.1% implied	−2.7pp

Both teams score held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.73	2.00	05:50 UTC
Coral	Best price: 1.75	1.95	05:50 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.75	1.95	05:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.73	1.98	05:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.72	1.97	05:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.72	1.97	05:50 UTC
William Hill	1.75	Best price: 2.05	05:50 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: LASK 36d, Liverpool 24d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for LASK.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

LASK

Match result+6.3pp differencecombined

13.00 at NordicBet

combined fair 7.1237 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 14%model 27% · market 10% (model vs market +17.1pp)

estimate 14% · price implies 8% · +82.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts LASK at 14%; best collected price 13.00 at nordicbet implies 8% — a +6.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:49 UTC

Draw

Match result+2.0pp differencecombined

6.89 at BetUS

combined fair 6.0537 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 17%model 25% · market 14% (model vs market +11.4pp)

estimate 17% · price implies 15% · +13.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 17%; best collected price 6.89 at betus implies 15% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 05:49 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win LASK vs Liverpool?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Liverpool the most likely outcome at 69%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 31%.

How does Clauseground predict LASK vs Liverpool?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.