Arsenal vs Lille — market analysis & odds
· Emirates Stadium, London
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Arsenal
73% means we estimate about 73 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Arsenal 73% · Draw 18% · Lille 10%
2 · Understand the price
Lille
13.25 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +1225
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 13.25 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 10%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from William Hill alone · 36 books quote this market · margin removed 9.1%
Arsenal
1.29 at Betfred
collected
no-vig reference 1.3673.3% implieddifference −4.2pp
Draw
6.00 at BetMGM +5
collected
no-vig reference 5.4518.3% implieddifference +1.7pp
Lille
13.25 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 12.008.3% implieddifference +0.8pp
Arsenal held from 1.25 to 1.25 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 36 venues collected
| Book | Arsenal | Draw | Lille | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 | |
| Betclic | 1.22 | 5.50 | 10.00 | |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.22 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| Betfred | Best price: 1.29 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| BetMGM | 1.27 | Best price: 6.00 | 10.50 | |
| BetRivers | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| Betsson | 1.28 | 5.35 | 12.50 | |
| BetUS | 1.26 | 5.60 | 10.00 | |
| Betway | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 | |
| Bovada | 1.26 | 5.60 | 10.00 | |
| BoyleSports | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 | |
| Codere | 1.26 | 6.00 | 11.00 | |
| Coolbet | 1.28 | 6.00 | 12.00 | |
| Coral | 1.28 | 6.00 | 10.00 | |
| DraftKings | 1.28 | 5.50 | 9.50 | |
| FanDuel | 1.24 | 5.90 | 10.00 | |
| Grosvenor | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| GTbets | 1.28 | 5.55 | 11.44 | |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 | 5.75 | 10.00 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.24 | 5.20 | 9.50 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.55 | Best price: 13.25 | |
| NordicBet | 1.28 | 5.40 | 13.00 | |
| Paddy Power | 1.22 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| PMU | 1.23 | 5.25 | 10.50 | |
| Sky Bet | 1.25 | 5.75 | 10.50 | |
| Suprabets | 1.26 | 4.90 | 11.00 | |
| Unibet | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| Unibet | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| Unibet | 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | |
| Unibet | 1.22 | 5.50 | 10.00 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.26 | 5.50 | 11.00 | |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 | |
| Winamax | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 | |
| Winamax | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%
Over 2.5
1.60 at Betsson +2
collected
no-vig reference 1.6560.5% implieddifference −2.0pp
Under 2.5
2.40 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 2.5339.5% implieddifference −2.1pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| Betsson | Best price: 1.60 | 2.37 | |
| Codere | 1.56 | 2.23 | |
| GTbets | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.53 | 2.20 | |
| NordicBet | 1.60 | 2.35 | |
| William Hill | 1.57 | Best price: 2.40 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
6 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.28 at BetRivers +4
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.61 at BetRivers +3
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
| Book | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | Best price: 2.28 | Best price: 1.61 | |
| Grosvenor | 2.28 | 1.60 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.28 | 1.61 | |
| PMU | 2.16 | 1.51 | |
| Unibet | 2.28 | 1.61 | |
| Unibet | 2.28 | 1.61 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%
Both teams score
2.10 at Coral +1
collected
no-vig reference 2.1446.7% implieddifference −1.0pp
Not both teams score
1.75 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 1.8853.3% implieddifference −3.8pp
Both teams score held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| Coral | Best price: 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| Ladbrokes | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.95 | 1.73 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.95 | 1.73 | |
| William Hill | 2.00 | Best price: 1.75 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Arsenal 24d, Lille 23d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Arsenal.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Both teams to score — Yes
Both teams to score+3.3pp differencecombined2.10 at Coral
combined fair 1.967 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 51% · price implies 48% · +7.0% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 51%; best collected price 2.10 at coral implies 48% — a +3.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Lille
Match result+2.0pp differencecombined13.25 at Marathonbet
combined fair 10.4236 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 10% · price implies 8% · +27.1% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Lille at 10%; best collected price 13.25 at marathonbet implies 8% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Questions
Who is most likely to win Arsenal vs Lille?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Arsenal the most likely outcome at 73%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 27%.
How does Clauseground predict Arsenal vs Lille?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.