Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce — market analysis & odds

Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Aston Villa
53% means we estimate about 53 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Aston Villa 53% · Draw 25% · Fenerbahce 21%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.00 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +300
collected 22:50 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 25%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 22:50 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Aston Villamodel 52% · market 54% (model vs market −1.1pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 26% (model vs market −0.8pp)

Fenerbahcemodel 23% · market 21% (model vs market +2.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

22:50 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 34 books quote this market · margin removed 7.9%

Aston Villa
1.85 at BetMGM +2
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9451.5% implieddifference −2.6pp
Draw
4.00 at Coolbet
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7826.5% implieddifference +1.5pp
Fenerbahce
4.75 at Marathonbet
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 4.5322.1% implieddifference +1.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Aston Villa	1.85BetMGM +2	22:50 UTC	1.9451.5% implied	−2.6pp
Draw	4.00Coolbet	22:50 UTC	3.7826.5% implied	+1.5pp
Fenerbahce	4.75Marathonbet	22:50 UTC	4.5322.1% implied	+1.0pp

Aston Villa held from 1.80 to 1.80 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Aston VillaDrawFenerbahce

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 32–34 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 34 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Aston Villa	Draw	Fenerbahce	Collected
888sport	1.80	3.50	4.20	22:50 UTC
Betclic	1.77	3.55	3.98	22:50 UTC
Betfred	1.80	3.75	4.20	22:50 UTC
BetMGM	Best price: 1.85	3.75	4.00	22:50 UTC
BetRivers	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Betsson	1.78	3.65	4.65	22:50 UTC
BetUS	1.83	3.60	4.20	22:50 UTC
Betway	1.73	3.80	4.00	22:50 UTC
Bovada	1.82	3.80	4.20	22:50 UTC
BoyleSports	1.73	3.60	4.50	22:50 UTC
Codere	1.85	3.70	4.20	22:50 UTC
Coolbet	1.82	Best price: 4.00	4.30	22:50 UTC
Coral	1.85	3.75	4.00	22:50 UTC
DraftKings	1.77	3.80	4.10	22:50 UTC
FanDuel	1.77	3.60	4.40	22:50 UTC
Grosvenor	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.83	3.75	4.00	22:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.75	3.55	3.85	22:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Marathonbet	1.76	3.78	Best price: 4.75	22:50 UTC
NordicBet	1.78	3.70	4.70	22:50 UTC
Paddy Power	1.75	3.60	4.40	22:50 UTC
PMU	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Sky Bet	1.75	3.60	4.33	22:50 UTC
Suprabets	1.79	3.50	4.10	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.80	3.60	4.00	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.77	3.50	4.00	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.72	3.80	4.40	22:50 UTC
William Hill	1.80	3.50	4.20	22:50 UTC
Winamax	1.78	3.70	3.90	22:50 UTC
Winamax	1.72	3.45	3.65	22:50 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

22:50 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Over 2.5
1.80 at BetUS
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8853.3% implieddifference −2.2pp
Under 2.5
2.16 at Betsson
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1446.7% implieddifference +0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.80BetUS	22:50 UTC	1.8853.3% implied	−2.2pp
Under 2.5	2.16Betsson	22:50 UTC	2.1446.7% implied	+0.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.71	2.00	22:50 UTC
BetRivers	1.68	2.15	22:50 UTC
Betsson	1.71	Best price: 2.16	22:50 UTC
BetUS	Best price: 1.80	2.05	22:50 UTC
Bovada	1.76	2.02	22:50 UTC
Codere	1.69	2.01	22:50 UTC
Coolbet	1.74	2.10	22:50 UTC
Grosvenor	1.67	2.12	22:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.68	2.15	22:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.64	1.98	22:50 UTC
NordicBet	1.70	2.15	22:50 UTC
PMU	1.60	2.02	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.68	2.15	22:50 UTC
Unibet	1.68	2.15	22:50 UTC
William Hill	1.75	2.00	22:50 UTC

Both teams to score

22:50 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred +3
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7656.8% implieddifference −3.0pp
Not both teams score
2.20 at William Hill
collected 22:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3243.2% implieddifference −2.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred +3	22:50 UTC	1.7656.8% implied	−3.0pp
Not both teams score	2.20William Hill	22:50 UTC	2.3243.2% implied	−2.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	22:50 UTC
Coral	1.67	2.10	22:50 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.67	2.10	22:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.64	2.12	22:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.61	2.12	22:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.61	2.12	22:50 UTC
William Hill	1.67	Best price: 2.20	22:50 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Aston Villa 32d, Fenerbahce 34d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Aston Villa.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Aston Villa the most likely outcome at 53%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 47%.

How does Clauseground predict Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.