RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven — market analysis & odds

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
RB Leipzig
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: RB Leipzig 44% · Draw 23% · PSV Eindhoven 33%
2 · Understand the price
PSV Eindhoven
3.45 decimal odds
BetRivers · US +245
collected 06:10 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.45 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 29%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 06:10 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

RB Leipzigmodel 36% · market 47% (model vs market −11.1pp)

Drawmodel 23% · market 23% (model vs market +0.8pp)

PSV Eindhovenmodel 40% · market 30% (model vs market +10.3pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

06:10 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 25 books quote this market · margin removed 6.3%

RB Leipzig
2.08 at Betsson +1
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1247.3% implieddifference −0.8pp
Draw
4.20 at Betfred
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference 4.4222.6% implieddifference −1.2pp
PSV Eindhoven
3.45 at BetRivers +7
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3230.1% implieddifference +1.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
RB Leipzig	2.08Betsson +1	06:10 UTC	2.1247.3% implied	−0.8pp
Draw	4.20Betfred	06:10 UTC	4.4222.6% implied	−1.2pp
PSV Eindhoven	3.45BetRivers +7	06:10 UTC	3.3230.1% implied	+1.2pp

Draw drifted from 4.03 to 4.16 (+3.2%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

RB LeipzigDrawPSV Eindhoven

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–26 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 25 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	RB Leipzig	Draw	PSV Eindhoven	Collected
Betclic	1.89	3.58	3.02	06:10 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	2.00	4.00	3.20	06:10 UTC
Betfred	2.00	Best price: 4.20	3.10	06:10 UTC
BetRivers	1.92	3.80	Best price: 3.45	06:10 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.08	3.90	3.30	06:10 UTC
DraftKings	2.00	4.00	3.10	06:10 UTC
FanDuel	2.00	4.10	3.20	06:10 UTC
Grosvenor	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
LeoVegas	1.95	3.70	3.00	06:10 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
Marathonbet	2.05	4.15	3.32	06:10 UTC
NordicBet	2.08	3.90	3.30	06:10 UTC
Paddy Power	2.00	4.00	3.20	06:10 UTC
Pinnacle	1.99	4.16	3.12	06:10 UTC
PMU	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
Sky Bet	2.00	4.00	3.10	06:10 UTC
Suprabets	1.96	4.00	3.03	06:10 UTC
Unibet	2.00	3.75	3.20	06:10 UTC
Unibet	1.93	3.60	3.10	06:10 UTC
Unibet	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
Unibet	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.92	3.80	3.45	06:10 UTC
Winamax	1.98	3.85	3.10	06:10 UTC
Winamax	1.90	3.60	2.90	06:10 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

06:10 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

Over 3.5
1.98 at Pinnacle
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0848.0% implieddifference −2.5pp
Under 3.5
1.83 at Pinnacle
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9252.0% implieddifference −2.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	1.98Pinnacle	06:10 UTC	2.0848.0% implied	−2.5pp
Under 3.5	1.83Pinnacle	06:10 UTC	1.9252.0% implied	−2.7pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.97	1.81	06:10 UTC
Grosvenor	1.96	1.78	06:10 UTC
LeoVegas	1.97	1.81	06:10 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	1.70	06:10 UTC
Pinnacle	Best price: 1.98	Best price: 1.83	06:10 UTC
PMU	1.87	1.70	06:10 UTC
Unibet	1.97	1.81	06:10 UTC
Unibet	1.97	1.81	06:10 UTC

Both teams to score

06:10 UTC

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Both teams score
1.38 at LeoVegas
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Not both teams score
3.00 at Betfred
collected 06:10 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.38LeoVegas	06:10 UTC	—	—
Not both teams score	3.00Betfred	06:10 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.36	Best price: 3.00	06:10 UTC
LeoVegas	Best price: 1.38	2.85	06:10 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.36	2.80	06:10 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.36	2.80	06:10 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: RB Leipzig 33d, PSV Eindhoven 33d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for RB Leipzig.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

PSV Eindhoven

Match result+3.7pp differencecombined

3.45 at BetRivers

combined fair 3.0625 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 33%model 40% · market 30% (model vs market +10.3pp)

estimate 33% · price implies 29% · +12.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts PSV Eindhoven at 33%; best collected price 3.45 at betrivers implies 29% — a +3.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 06:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes RB Leipzig the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.