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UEFA Champions League

Inter Milan vs Club Brugge — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Inter Milan

    73% means we estimate about 73 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Inter Milan 73% · Draw 17% · Club Brugge 10%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Club Brugge

    11.00 decimal odds

    Betsson · US +1000

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 11.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 10%; the price implies 9%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Inter Milanmodel 69% · market 75% (model vs market −5.8pp)
Drawmodel 19% · market 16% (model vs market +3.3pp)
Club Bruggemodel 12% · market 9% (model vs market +2.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 34 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

  • Inter Milan

    1.33 at BetRivers +8

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.3673.4% implieddifference −1.7pp

  • Draw

    5.90 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.1216.3% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Club Brugge

    11.00 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 9.7910.2% implieddifference +1.1pp

Inter Milan held from 1.27 to 1.27 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.176.1712.1611 Sept, 19 UTC14 Sept, 18 UTC
Inter MilanDrawClub Brugge
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 25–34 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 34 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookInter MilanDrawClub BruggeCollected
888sport1.334.3310.00
Betclic1.265.258.50
Betfair Sportsbook1.255.5010.50
Betfred1.295.5010.00
BetMGM1.315.509.75
BetRiversBest price: 1.335.008.50
Betsson1.325.20Best price: 11.00
BetUS1.315.609.50
Betway1.255.509.00
Bovada1.315.609.50
BoyleSports1.295.0010.00
Codere1.305.809.20
Coral1.305.509.50
DraftKings1.295.508.50
FanDuel1.24Best price: 5.909.50
Grosvenor1.335.008.50
Ladbrokes1.305.509.50
LeoVegas1.335.008.50
LeoVegas1.275.008.00
LiveScore Bet1.335.008.50
Marathonbet1.305.5510.75
NordicBet1.325.2011.00
Paddy Power1.255.5010.00
Pinnacle1.275.719.13
Sky Bet1.255.759.50
Suprabets1.265.508.70
Unibet1.335.008.50
Unibet1.335.008.50
Unibet1.295.509.00
Unibet1.265.308.40
Virgin Bet1.335.008.50
William Hill1.334.3310.00
Winamax1.275.708.00
Winamax1.275.708.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

  • Over 2.5

    1.53 at LeoVegas +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6261.6% implieddifference −3.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.50 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.6038.4% implieddifference −1.6pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.412.022.6211 Sept, 19 UTC14 Sept, 18 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–7 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
Betsson1.52Best price: 2.50
Grosvenor1.502.45
LeoVegasBest price: 1.532.48
NordicBet1.522.50
Unibet1.532.48
Unibet1.532.48
William Hill1.532.45

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.28 at BetRivers

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.62 at BetRivers

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.541.952.3611 Sept, 19 UTC14 Sept, 18 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM2.251.57
BetRiversBest price: 2.28Best price: 1.62
Codere2.251.55
LeoVegas2.181.53

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.95 at Coral +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference −0.5pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.91 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −3.2pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.871.921.9611 Sept, 19 UTC14 Sept, 18 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–7 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.911.80
CoralBest price: 1.951.80
Ladbrokes1.951.80
LeoVegas1.881.83
LiveScore Bet1.771.90
Virgin Bet1.771.90
William Hill1.85Best price: 1.91

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Inter Milan 24d, Club Brugge 35d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Inter Milan.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Club Brugge

Match result+1.5pp differencecombined

11.75 at Marathonbet

combined fair 9.9637 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 10%model 12% · market 9% (model vs market +2.6pp)

estimate 10% · price implies 9% · +17.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Club Brugge at 10%; best collected price 11.75 at marathonbet implies 9% — a +1.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+0.8pp differencecombined

1.91 at Betfred

combined fair 1.887 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 53%model 57% · market 51% (model vs market +6.7pp)

estimate 53% · price implies 52% · +1.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 53%; best collected price 1.91 at betfred_uk implies 52% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Inter Milan vs Club Brugge?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Inter Milan the most likely outcome at 73%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 27%.

How does Clauseground predict Inter Milan vs Club Brugge?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →