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UEFA Champions League

Viking FK vs Bayern Munich — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Bayern Munich

    81% means we estimate about 81 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Viking FK 9% · Draw 11% · Bayern Munich 81%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Viking FK

    25.00 decimal odds

    Betsson · US +2400

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 25.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +4.5 percentage points

    Our estimate is 9%; the price implies 4%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Viking FKmodel 16% · market 6% (model vs market +9.9pp)
Drawmodel 21% · market 7% (model vs market +13.5pp)
Bayern Munichmodel 63% · market 87% (model vs market −23.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Viking FK

    25.00 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 16.566.0% implieddifference +2.0pp

  • Draw

    12.76 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 13.527.4% implieddifference −0.4pp

  • Bayern Munich

    1.13 at BetMGM +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.1686.6% implieddifference −1.9pp

Viking FK held from 15.63 to 15.63 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-1.7313.0627.8625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Viking FKDrawBayern Munich
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 34–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookViking FKDrawBayern MunichCollected
888sport17.0011.001.10
Betclic15.509.251.08
Betfair Sportsbook23.0012.001.08
Betfred21.0011.001.09
BetMGM16.0010.50Best price: 1.13
BetRivers18.0010.501.10
BetssonBest price: 25.0011.001.09
BetUS17.0011.001.08
BetVictor20.0011.001.07
Betway13.0012.001.10
Bovada17.0011.001.08
BoyleSports21.0010.001.10
Codere19.0011.001.11
Coolbet25.0012.001.10
Coral15.0010.001.13
DraftKings16.0012.001.09
FanDuel21.0010.501.08
Grosvenor18.0010.501.10
GTbets17.9212.131.11
Ladbrokes15.0010.001.12
LeoVegas18.0010.501.10
LeoVegas13.009.001.08
LiveScore Bet18.0010.501.10
Marathonbet20.5012.251.10
Paddy Power23.0012.001.08
Pinnacle15.63Best price: 12.761.09
PMU17.009.501.08
Sky Bet19.0011.001.07
Suprabets14.0011.001.08
Unibet18.0010.501.10
Unibet18.0010.501.10
Unibet18.009.501.10
Unibet15.009.001.08
Virgin Bet18.0010.501.10
William Hill17.0011.001.10
Winamax14.5010.501.08
Winamax14.5010.501.08
NordicBet—11.001.09

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

13 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 4.5

    2.12 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 4.5

    1.80 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.761.962.1625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM2.001.71
BetRivers2.071.74
BetUSBest price: 2.121.76
Bovada2.021.76
Codere1.961.73
Coolbet2.02Best price: 1.80
Grosvenor2.051.72
GTbets2.021.72
LeoVegas2.071.74
LeoVegas1.901.73
PMU1.941.64
Unibet2.071.74
Unibet2.071.74

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.17 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2381.0% implieddifference −4.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    5.33 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.2719.0% implieddifference +0.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.17 to 1.17 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.673.255.8325 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
Betsson1.16Best price: 5.33
NordicBet1.165.30
William HillBest price: 1.175.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.80 at Coral +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8254.8% implieddifference −0.7pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.10 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2145.2% implieddifference −2.4pp

Both teams score held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.761.952.1425 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.732.00
CoralBest price: 1.801.95
Ladbrokes1.801.95
LeoVegas1.731.98
LiveScore Bet1.711.98
Virgin Bet1.711.98
William Hill1.73Best price: 2.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Viking FK 34d, Bayern Munich 25d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Viking FK.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Both teams to score — Yes

Both teams to score+2.0pp differencecombined

1.80 at Coral

combined fair 1.747 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 58%model 63% · market 55% (model vs market +7.9pp)

estimate 58% · price implies 56% · +3.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 58%; best collected price 1.80 at coral implies 56% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Under 2.5

Totals+3.4pp differencecombined

5.33 at Betsson

combined fair 4.503 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 32% · market 19% (model vs market +13.0pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 19% · +18.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 22%; best collected price 5.33 at betsson implies 19% — a +3.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Viking FK vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayern Munich the most likely outcome at 81%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 19%.

How does Clauseground predict Viking FK vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →