Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund — market analysis & odds

Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Borussia Dortmund
47% means we estimate about 47 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Bodø/Glimt 30% · Draw 24% · Borussia Dortmund 47%
2 · Understand the price
Bodø/Glimt
3.54 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +254
collected 04:50 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.54 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 30%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 09:30 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Bodø/Glimtmodel 27% · market 31% (model vs market −3.2pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 23% (model vs market +0.6pp)

Borussia Dortmundmodel 49% · market 46% (model vs market +2.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

04:50 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 25 books quote this market · margin removed 6.3%

Bodø/Glimt
3.54 at Marathonbet
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference 3.6727.3% implieddifference −1.0pp
Draw
4.20 at Betfred +3
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference 4.4122.7% implieddifference −1.1pp
Borussia Dortmund
2.07 at BetRivers +7
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.1% implieddifference +1.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Bodø/Glimt	3.54Marathonbet	04:50 UTC	3.6727.3% implied	−1.0pp
Draw	4.20Betfred +3	04:50 UTC	4.4122.7% implied	−1.1pp
Borussia Dortmund	2.07BetRivers +7	04:50 UTC	2.0050.1% implied	+1.7pp

Bodø/Glimt drifted from 2.96 to 3.45 (+16.6%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Bodø/GlimtDrawBorussia Dortmund

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–25 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 25 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Bodø/Glimt	Draw	Borussia Dortmund	Collected
Betclic	3.07	3.55	1.88	04:50 UTC
Betfred	3.30	Best price: 4.20	1.95	04:50 UTC
BetRivers	3.00	3.90	Best price: 2.07	04:50 UTC
Betsson	3.50	3.95	1.98	04:50 UTC
BoyleSports	3.40	4.00	1.87	04:50 UTC
Codere	3.35	3.85	2.04	04:50 UTC
DraftKings	3.30	4.10	1.91	04:50 UTC
FanDuel	3.30	4.20	1.95	04:50 UTC
Grosvenor	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
LeoVegas	3.10	3.60	1.95	04:50 UTC
LeoVegas	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 3.54	4.20	1.96	04:50 UTC
NordicBet	3.50	3.95	1.98	04:50 UTC
Paddy Power	3.30	4.20	1.95	04:50 UTC
Pinnacle	3.45	4.15	1.88	04:50 UTC
PMU	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
Sky Bet	3.25	4.00	1.95	04:50 UTC
Unibet	3.25	3.75	2.00	04:50 UTC
Unibet	3.10	3.60	1.92	04:50 UTC
Unibet	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
Unibet	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	3.00	3.90	2.07	04:50 UTC
Winamax	3.10	3.95	1.96	04:50 UTC
Winamax	2.90	3.65	1.88	04:50 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

04:50 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

Over 3.5
2.01 at Pinnacle
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1147.4% implieddifference −2.4pp
Under 3.5
1.81 at Pinnacle
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9052.6% implieddifference −2.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.01Pinnacle	04:50 UTC	2.1147.4% implied	−2.4pp
Under 3.5	1.81Pinnacle	04:50 UTC	1.9052.6% implied	−2.6pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetRivers	2.00	1.80	04:50 UTC
Codere	1.95	1.74	04:50 UTC
Grosvenor	1.97	1.77	04:50 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	1.80	04:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.90	1.73	04:50 UTC
Pinnacle	Best price: 2.01	Best price: 1.81	04:50 UTC
PMU	1.88	1.68	04:50 UTC
Unibet	2.00	1.80	04:50 UTC
Unibet	2.00	1.80	04:50 UTC

Both teams to score

04:50 UTC

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Both teams score
1.36 at Betfred +1
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Not both teams score
3.00 at Betfred
collected 04:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.36Betfred +1	04:50 UTC	—	—
Not both teams score	3.00Betfred	04:50 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.36	Best price: 3.00	04:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.36	2.88	04:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.35	2.85	04:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.35	2.85	04:50 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Bodø/Glimt 34d, Borussia Dortmund 25d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Bodø/Glimt.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 47%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 53%.

How does Clauseground predict Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.