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UEFA Champions League

AS Roma vs Real Madrid — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Real Madrid

    48% means we estimate about 48 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: AS Roma 27% · Draw 25% · Real Madrid 48%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    4.20 decimal odds

    Coolbet · US +320

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.8 percentage points

    Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

AS Romamodel 25% · market 28% (model vs market −2.3pp)
Drawmodel 25% · market 25% (model vs market +0.1pp)
Real Madridmodel 50% · market 48% (model vs market +2.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 36 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

  • AS Roma

    3.80 at NordicBet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.6227.6% implieddifference +1.3pp

  • Draw

    4.20 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.0724.6% implieddifference +0.8pp

  • Real Madrid

    2.00 at Betfred +6

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0947.8% implieddifference −2.2pp

AS Roma shortened from 3.76 to 3.44 (−8.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.653.114.5818 Sept, 05 UTC21 Sept, 04 UTC
AS RomaDrawReal Madrid
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 35–36 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 36 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookAS RomaDrawReal MadridCollected
888sport3.303.751.95
Betclic3.233.751.90
Betfred3.304.00Best price: 2.00
BetMGM3.403.901.98
BetRivers3.403.851.91
Betsson3.753.851.90
BetUS3.443.871.99
Betway3.203.801.95
Bovada3.453.902.00
BoyleSports3.303.751.95
Codere3.403.952.00
Coolbet3.40Best price: 4.202.00
Coral3.403.901.95
DraftKings3.403.851.95
FanDuel3.403.702.00
Grosvenor3.403.851.91
GTbets3.483.931.91
Ladbrokes3.303.901.95
LeoVegas3.403.851.91
LeoVegas3.103.751.92
LiveScore Bet3.403.851.91
Marathonbet3.503.921.99
NordicBetBest price: 3.803.901.92
Paddy Power3.303.702.00
Pinnacle3.443.871.99
PMU3.403.851.91
Sky Bet3.303.602.00
Suprabets3.303.711.93
Unibet3.403.851.91
Unibet3.403.851.91
Unibet3.253.801.95
Unibet3.203.801.90
Virgin Bet3.403.851.91
William Hill3.303.751.95
Winamax3.203.901.94
Winamax3.003.651.84

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

12 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.02 at BetRivers +4

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.80 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.771.912.0518 Sept, 05 UTC21 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.951.77
BetRiversBest price: 2.021.78
Bovada1.981.78
Codere1.951.73
Coolbet2.02Best price: 1.80
Grosvenor2.001.76
GTbets1.991.79
LeoVegas2.021.78
LeoVegas1.881.73
PMU1.891.67
Unibet2.021.78
Unibet2.021.78

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Over 2.5

    1.42 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4867.4% implieddifference −3.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.91 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0732.6% implieddifference −1.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.222.193.1618 Sept, 05 UTC21 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.42Best price: 2.91
NordicBet1.412.90
William Hill1.402.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Both teams score

    1.40 at Coral +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4867.4% implieddifference −4.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    3.00 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0732.6% implieddifference −0.8pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.212.203.1918 Sept, 05 UTC21 Sept, 04 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.36Best price: 3.00
CoralBest price: 1.402.80
Ladbrokes1.402.80
LeoVegas1.382.85
LiveScore Bet1.372.75
Virgin Bet1.372.75
William Hill1.402.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: AS Roma 25d, Real Madrid 24d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for AS Roma.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

4.20 at Coolbet

combined fair 4.0636 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 25% · market 25% (model vs market +0.1pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 24% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.20 at coolbet implies 24% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

AS Roma

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

3.80 at NordicBet

combined fair 3.7036 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 27%model 25% · market 28% (model vs market −2.3pp)

estimate 27% · price implies 26% · +2.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts AS Roma at 27%; best collected price 3.80 at nordicbet implies 26% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Madrid the most likely outcome at 48%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 52%.

How does Clauseground predict AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →