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UEFA Champions League

Villarreal vs Napoli — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Villarreal

    39% means we estimate about 39 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Villarreal 39% · Draw 27% · Napoli 34%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Napoli

    3.20 decimal odds

    Coolbet · US +220

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.20 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 34%; the price implies 31%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Villarrealmodel 33% · market 41% (model vs market −8.4pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 27% (model vs market −1.4pp)
Napolimodel 41% · market 32% (model vs market +9.8pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

  • Villarreal

    2.35 at BetRivers +6

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3243.1% implieddifference +0.6pp

  • Draw

    3.65 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7326.8% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Napoli

    3.20 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.3330.1% implieddifference −1.2pp

Villarreal held from 2.21 to 2.21 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.153.094.0325 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
VillarrealDrawNapoli
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 35–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookVillarrealDrawNapoliCollected
888sport2.203.303.00
Betclic2.133.402.98
Betfair Sportsbook2.253.602.88
Betfred2.303.602.88
BetMGM2.303.602.90
BetRiversBest price: 2.353.352.90
Betsson2.253.503.10
BetUS2.203.552.95
BetVictor2.203.503.00
Betway2.153.503.00
Bovada2.203.552.95
BoyleSports2.153.403.10
Codere2.243.553.10
Coolbet2.24Best price: 3.65Best price: 3.20
Coral2.303.602.90
DraftKings2.203.503.00
FanDuel2.253.602.90
Grosvenor2.353.352.90
GTbets2.333.493.00
Ladbrokes2.253.602.87
LeoVegas2.353.352.90
LeoVegas2.153.352.88
LiveScore Bet2.353.352.90
Marathonbet2.263.523.16
NordicBet2.283.553.15
Paddy Power2.253.602.88
Pinnacle2.213.553.17
PMU2.283.202.80
Sky Bet2.253.602.88
Suprabets2.143.383.05
Unibet2.353.352.90
Unibet2.353.352.90
Unibet2.203.403.00
Unibet2.153.402.95
Virgin Bet2.353.352.90
William Hill2.203.303.00
Winamax2.153.552.95
Winamax2.153.552.95

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Over 2.5

    1.75 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8553.9% implieddifference −3.2pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.25 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1746.1% implieddifference +1.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.682.022.3725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 16 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.672.10
BetRivers1.662.20
Betsson1.732.13
BetUS1.69Best price: 2.25
Bovada1.692.10
Codere1.662.04
Coolbet1.732.18
Grosvenor1.642.18
GTbets1.702.11
LeoVegas1.662.20
LeoVegas1.622.02
NordicBet1.722.12
PMU1.562.07
Unibet1.662.20
Unibet1.662.20
William HillBest price: 1.752.05

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

  • Both teams score

    1.62 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7258.1% implieddifference −3.6pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.38 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3941.9% implieddifference −0.2pp

Both teams score held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.522.042.5525 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.572.25
Coral1.572.25
Ladbrokes1.572.25
LeoVegas1.552.30
LiveScore Bet1.50Best price: 2.38
Virgin Bet1.502.38
William HillBest price: 1.622.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Villarreal 35d, Napoli 30d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Villarreal.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Napoli

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

3.05 at Betsson

combined fair 2.9335 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 34%model 41% · market 32% (model vs market +9.8pp)

estimate 34% · price implies 33% · +4.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Napoli at 34%; best collected price 3.05 at betsson implies 33% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Villarreal vs Napoli?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Villarreal the most likely outcome at 39%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 61%.

How does Clauseground predict Villarreal vs Napoli?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →