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UEFA Champions League

Sabah FK vs Slavia Praha — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Slavia Praha

    44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Sabah FK 30% · Draw 26% · Slavia Praha 44%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Sabah FK

    3.64 decimal odds

    Marathonbet · US +264

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.64 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.7 percentage points

    Our estimate is 30%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Sabah FKmodel 42% · market 26% (model vs market +15.4pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 25% (model vs market +1.8pp)
Slavia Prahamodel 31% · market 48% (model vs market −17.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 33 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

  • Sabah FK

    3.64 at Marathonbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.8026.3% implieddifference −1.1pp

  • Draw

    4.00 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.9325.4% implieddifference +0.4pp

  • Slavia Praha

    2.02 at Codere +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0748.3% implieddifference −1.3pp

Sabah FK held from 3.61 to 3.61 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.783.014.2425 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Sabah FKDrawSlavia Praha
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 31–33 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 33 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookSabah FKDrawSlavia PrahaCollected
888sport3.403.502.00
Betclic3.333.581.92
Betfair Sportsbook3.403.801.95
Betfred3.403.752.00
BetRivers3.503.701.93
BetUS3.453.701.95
BetVictor3.503.701.95
Betway3.403.601.91
Bovada3.453.701.95
BoyleSports3.603.501.95
Codere3.503.75Best price: 2.02
Coolbet3.50Best price: 4.002.02
DraftKings3.453.651.95
FanDuel3.403.801.95
Grosvenor3.503.701.93
GTbets3.513.752.01
LeoVegas3.503.701.93
LeoVegas3.253.451.95
LiveScore Bet3.503.701.94
MarathonbetBest price: 3.643.761.99
Paddy Power3.403.801.95
Pinnacle3.613.741.97
PMU3.403.601.88
Sky Bet3.403.751.95
Suprabets3.473.591.92
Unibet3.503.701.93
Unibet3.503.701.93
Unibet3.403.601.98
Unibet3.303.601.93
Virgin Bet3.503.701.94
William Hill3.403.502.00
Winamax3.403.751.90
Winamax3.403.751.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.65 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7557.1% implieddifference −3.5pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.40 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3342.9% implieddifference +1.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.65 to 1.65 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.562.022.4925 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.602.30
BetUS1.62Best price: 2.40
Bovada1.622.20
Codere1.612.13
Grosvenor1.572.28
GTbets1.632.24
LeoVegas1.602.30
LeoVegas1.572.12
PMU1.502.18
Unibet1.602.30
Unibet1.602.30
William HillBest price: 1.652.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3

    2.12 at BetUS

    collected · 80m old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3

    1.78 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.741.952.1625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetUSBest price: 2.121.76
Bovada2.021.76
Coolbet2.05Best price: 1.78

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 5.7%

  • Both teams score

    1.57 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6660.3% implieddifference −3.4pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.38 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.5239.7% implieddifference −2.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.471.982.4825 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.572.25
LeoVegas1.532.30
LiveScore Bet1.502.33
Virgin Bet1.502.33
William Hill1.57Best price: 2.38

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Sabah FK 33d, Slavia Praha 33d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Sabah FK.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Sabah FK

Match result+2.7pp differencecombined

3.64 at Marathonbet

combined fair 3.3133 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 30%model 42% · market 26% (model vs market +15.4pp)

estimate 30% · price implies 27% · +9.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Sabah FK at 30%; best collected price 3.64 at marathonbet implies 27% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Under 2.5

Totals+1.4pp differencecombined

2.40 at BetUS

combined fair 2.3212 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 43%model 44% · market 43% (model vs market +0.7pp)

estimate 43% · price implies 42% · +3.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 43%; best collected price 2.40 at betus implies 42% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Sabah FK vs Slavia Praha?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Slavia Praha the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict Sabah FK vs Slavia Praha?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →