Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens — market analysis & odds

Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Shakhtar Donetsk
37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Shakhtar Donetsk 37% · Draw 27% · AEK Athens 36%
2 · Understand the price
AEK Athens
2.80 decimal odds
BetRivers · US +180
collected 00:50 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 36%; the price implies 36%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 09:30 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Shakhtar Donetskmodel 42% · market 35% (model vs market +6.7pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 27% (model vs market +0.4pp)

AEK Athensmodel 31% · market 38% (model vs market −7.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

00:50 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 26 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

Shakhtar Donetsk
2.67 at Marathonbet
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7336.6% implieddifference −0.9pp
Draw
3.60 at Betfred +3
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7326.8% implieddifference −1.0pp
AEK Athens
2.80 at BetRivers +7
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7336.6% implieddifference +0.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Shakhtar Donetsk	2.67Marathonbet	00:50 UTC	2.7336.6% implied	−0.9pp
Draw	3.60Betfred +3	00:50 UTC	3.7326.8% implied	−1.0pp
AEK Athens	2.80BetRivers +7	00:50 UTC	2.7336.6% implied	+0.9pp

Shakhtar Donetsk held from 2.58 to 2.58 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Shakhtar DonetskDrawAEK Athens

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–26 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 26 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Shakhtar Donetsk	Draw	AEK Athens	Collected
Betclic	2.33	3.20	2.50	00:50 UTC
Betfred	2.50	Best price: 3.60	2.62	00:50 UTC
BetRivers	2.43	3.40	Best price: 2.80	00:50 UTC
Betsson	2.65	3.50	2.65	00:50 UTC
BoyleSports	2.50	3.50	2.50	00:50 UTC
Codere	2.55	3.50	2.70	00:50 UTC
DraftKings	2.55	3.50	2.55	00:50 UTC
FanDuel	2.45	3.60	2.65	00:50 UTC
Grosvenor	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
LeoVegas	2.45	3.30	2.50	00:50 UTC
LeoVegas	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 2.67	3.54	2.67	00:50 UTC
NordicBet	2.65	3.50	2.65	00:50 UTC
Paddy Power	2.45	3.60	2.62	00:50 UTC
Pinnacle	2.58	3.52	2.58	00:50 UTC
PMU	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
Sky Bet	2.45	3.60	2.63	00:50 UTC
Suprabets	2.51	3.41	2.51	00:50 UTC
Unibet	2.50	3.40	2.60	00:50 UTC
Unibet	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
Unibet	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
Unibet	2.40	3.30	2.55	00:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.43	3.40	2.80	00:50 UTC
Winamax	2.45	3.55	2.50	00:50 UTC
Winamax	2.35	3.30	2.35	00:50 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

00:50 UTC

10 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 2.5
1.80 at Betsson +1
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 2.5
2.02 at BetRivers +3
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.80Betsson +1	00:50 UTC	—	—
Under 2.5	2.02BetRivers +3	00:50 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.

Every book’s current price — 10 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.78	Best price: 2.02	00:50 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.80	2.00	00:50 UTC
Codere	1.73	1.95	00:50 UTC
Grosvenor	1.76	2.00	00:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.78	2.02	00:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.70	1.92	00:50 UTC
NordicBet	1.80	2.00	00:50 UTC
PMU	1.68	1.89	00:50 UTC
Unibet	1.78	2.02	00:50 UTC
Unibet	1.78	2.02	00:50 UTC

Both teams to score

00:50 UTC

4 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Both teams score
1.62 at Betfred
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Not both teams score
2.20 at Betfred +1
collected 00:50 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.62Betfred	00:50 UTC	—	—
Not both teams score	2.20Betfred +1	00:50 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.62	Best price: 2.20	00:50 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	2.20	00:50 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.58	2.18	00:50 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.58	2.18	00:50 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Shakhtar Donetsk 34d, AEK Athens 36d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.9 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Shakhtar Donetsk.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Shakhtar Donetsk the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.

How does Clauseground predict Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.