Angers vs Lille— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Lille
53% means we estimate about 53 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Angers 22% · Draw 25% · Lille 53%
2 · Understand the price
Angers
5.50 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +450
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 22%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 22% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.60 | 5.50 decimal oddsBetfred uk · US +450price implies 18% | +3.5 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Draw | 25% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.96 | 4.00 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +300price implies 25% | +0.2 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Lille | 53% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.89 | 1.75 decimal oddsNordicbet · US −133price implies 57% | −4.1 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Angers 7d, Lille 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Angers.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Angers
Match result+3.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 18% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 22% — about 4 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Angers at 22%; best collected price 5.50 at betfred_uk implies 18% — a +3.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Over 2.5
Totals+1.5pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 50% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 52% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 52%; best collected price 1.99 at betonlineag implies 50% — a +1.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Angers vs Lille?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lille the most likely outcome at 53%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 47%.
How does Clauseground predict Angers vs Lille?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.