Toulouse vs Lyon— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Lyon
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Toulouse 29% · Draw 26% · Lyon 45%
2 · Understand the price
Toulouse
3.52 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +252
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.52 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 29% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.40 | 3.52 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +252price implies 28% | +1.0 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Draw | 26% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.89 | 3.85 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +285price implies 26% | −0.2 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Lyon | 45% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.23 | 2.08 decimal oddsCodere it · US +108price implies 48% | −3.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Toulouse 7d, Lyon 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Toulouse.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Toulouse
Match result+1.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 28% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 29% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Toulouse at 29%; best collected price 3.52 at marathonbet implies 28% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.
How does Clauseground predict Toulouse vs Lyon?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.