Genoa vs Napoli— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Napoli
50% means we estimate about 50 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Genoa 21% · Draw 29% · Napoli 50%
2 · Understand the price
Genoa
5.20 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +420
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 19%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 21% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.74 | 5.20 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +420price implies 19% | +1.8 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Draw | 29% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.49 | 3.50 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +250price implies 29% | +0.1 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Napoli | 50% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.99 | 1.87 decimal oddsCaesars · US −115price implies 53% | −3.2 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Genoa 7d, Napoli 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Genoa.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Genoa
Match result+1.9pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 19% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 21% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Genoa at 21%; best collected price 5.20 at leovegas_se implies 19% — a +1.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Genoa vs Napoli?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Napoli the most likely outcome at 50%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 50%.
How does Clauseground predict Genoa vs Napoli?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.