Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Atalanta BC
61% means we estimate about 61 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Atalanta BC 61% · Draw 22% · Sassuolo 17%
2 · Understand the price
Sassuolo
6.15 decimal odds
LowVig · US +515
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.15 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 17%; the price implies 16%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC | 61% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.63 | 1.56 decimal oddsBovada · US −179price implies 64% | −2.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 22% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.59 | 4.50 decimal oddsTipico de · US +350price implies 22% | −0.4 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Sassuolo | 17% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.95 | 6.15 decimal oddsLowVig · US +515price implies 16% | +0.6 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Atalanta BC 7d, Sassuolo 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Atalanta BC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Sassuolo
Match result+0.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 16% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 17% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Sassuolo at 17%; best collected price 6.15 at lowvig implies 16% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Atalanta BC the most likely outcome at 61%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 39%.
How does Clauseground predict Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.