AS Roma vs Fiorentina— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
AS Roma
58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: AS Roma 58% · Draw 24% · Fiorentina 19%
2 · Understand the price
Fiorentina
6.50 decimal odds
Betfred uk · US +550
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 15%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 58% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.73 | 1.57 decimal oddsCodere it · US −175price implies 64% | −6.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 24% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.24 | 4.40 decimal oddsTipico de · US +340price implies 23% | +0.9 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Fiorentina | 19% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.36 | 6.50 decimal oddsBetfred uk · US +550price implies 15% | +3.3 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: AS Roma 7d, Fiorentina 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for AS Roma.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Fiorentina
Match result+3.3pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 15% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 19% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Fiorentina at 19%; best collected price 6.50 at betfred_uk implies 15% — a +3.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+0.9pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 23% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 24% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Draw at 24%; best collected price 4.40 at tipico_de implies 23% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.
How does Clauseground predict AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.