Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Celta Vigo
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Celta Vigo 45% · Draw 28% · CA Osasuna 27%
2 · Understand the price
CA Osasuna
3.84 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +284
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.84 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 27%; the price implies 26%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 45% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.22 | 2.09 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +109price implies 48% | −2.8 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 28% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.58 | 3.48 decimal oddsPinnacle · US +248price implies 29% | −0.8 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| CA Osasuna | 27% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.70 | 3.84 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +284price implies 26% | +1.0 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Celta Vigo 7d, CA Osasuna 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.55 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Celta Vigo.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
CA Osasuna
Match result+1.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 26% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 27% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts CA Osasuna at 27%; best collected price 3.84 at marathonbet implies 26% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Celta Vigo the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.
How does Clauseground predict Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.