Everton vs Crystal Palace— market analysis & odds
· Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Everton
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Everton 44% · Draw 28% · Crystal Palace 28%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.60 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +260
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.60 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 28%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 44% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.29 | 2.18 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +118price implies 46% | −2.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 28% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.54 | 3.60 decimal oddsFanDuel · US +260price implies 28% | +0.5 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Crystal Palace | 28% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.55 | 3.50 decimal oddsBetOnline · US +250price implies 29% | −0.4 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Everton 7d, Crystal Palace 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Everton.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Under 2.5
Totals+1.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 50% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 51% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 51%; best collected price 2.02 at betrivers implies 50% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Everton the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.
How does Clauseground predict Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.