Atlante FC vs Toluca— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Toluca
58% means we estimate about 58 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Atlante FC 18% · Draw 25% · Toluca 58%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.20 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +320
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 13.1%
| Outcome | No-vig reference | Best collected price | Collected | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 5.6517.7% implied | 5.75Coolbet | +0.3pp | |
| Draw | 3.9625.3% implied | 4.20Coolbet | +1.5pp | |
| Toluca | 1.7557.0% implied | 1.65Betsson +1 | −3.6pp |
Atlante FC held from 5.00 to 5.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected
| Book | Atlante FC | Draw | Toluca | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.53 | |
| Betclic | 4.95 | 3.68 | 1.46 | |
| Betsson | 4.95 | 3.95 | Best price: 1.65 | |
| Coolbet | Best price: 5.75 | Best price: 4.20 | 1.58 | |
| FanDuel | 5.70 | 4.10 | 1.50 | |
| LeoVegas | 5.10 | 3.85 | 1.53 | |
| Marathonbet | 5.55 | 3.94 | 1.55 | |
| NordicBet | 4.95 | 3.95 | 1.65 | |
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.50 | |
| Sky Bet | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.50 | |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.55 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 9.5%
| Outcome | No-vig reference | Best collected price | Collected | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.9252.2% implied | 1.82Betsson +2 | −2.8pp | |
| Under 2.5 | 2.0947.8% implied | 1.96Coolbet | −3.2pp |
Over 2.5 held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | Best price: 1.82 | 1.92 | |
| Coolbet | 1.82 | Best price: 1.96 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 1.91 | |
| NordicBet | 1.82 | 1.92 | |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 1.91 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Atlante FC 22d, Toluca 25d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Atlante FC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Atlante FC vs Toluca?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Toluca the most likely outcome at 58%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 42%.
How does Clauseground predict Atlante FC vs Toluca?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.