Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution— market analysis & odds

Sat 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Toronto FC
39% means we estimate about 39 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Toronto FC 39% · Draw 25% · New England Revolution 35%
2 · Understand the price
New England Revolution
2.78 decimal odds
Nordicbet · US +178
collected 04:12 UTC · 2h old than this market's newest quote
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.78 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 35%; the price implies 36%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 03:45 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Toronto FCmodel 38% · market 40% (model vs market −1.5pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 25% (model vs market −0.1pp)

New England Revolutionmodel 36% · market 35% (model vs market +1.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

06:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%

Outcome	No-vig reference	Best collected price	Collected	Difference
Toronto FC	2.5239.7% implied	2.40Coolbet	06:12 UTC	−1.9pp
Draw	3.9425.4% implied	3.75Coolbet	06:12 UTC	−1.3pp
New England Revolution	2.8734.9% implied	2.78NordicBet	04:12 UTC2h oldthan this market’s newest quote	−1.1pp

Toronto FC held from 2.30 to 2.30 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Toronto FCDrawNew England Revolution

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Toronto FC	Draw	New England Revolution	Collected
888sport	2.30	3.60	2.62	06:12 UTC
Betclic	2.10	3.33	2.60	05:32 UTC
BoyleSports	2.25	3.60	2.60	06:12 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.40	Best price: 3.75	2.75	06:12 UTC
FanDuel	2.35	3.70	2.70	06:12 UTC
LeoVegas	2.25	3.45	2.70	06:12 UTC
Marathonbet	2.35	3.56	2.73	06:12 UTC
NordicBet	2.38	3.70	Best price: 2.78	04:12 UTC
Paddy Power	2.30	3.70	2.62	06:12 UTC
Sky Bet	2.25	3.50	2.50	06:12 UTC
William Hill	2.30	3.60	2.62	06:12 UTC
Winamax	2.15	3.45	2.55	06:12 UTC
Winamax	2.10	3.40	2.55	06:12 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

06:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Outcome	No-vig reference	Best collected price	Collected	Difference
Over 2.5	1.8055.7% implied	1.68Coolbet	06:12 UTC	−3.8pp
Under 2.5	2.2644.3% implied	2.18NordicBet	04:12 UTC2h oldthan this market’s newest quote	−1.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Coolbet	Best price: 1.68	2.15	06:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.62	2.02	06:12 UTC
NordicBet	1.65	Best price: 2.18	04:12 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.10	06:12 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Toronto FC 21d, New England Revolution 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Toronto FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Toronto FC the most likely outcome at 39%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 61%.

How does Clauseground predict Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.