Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Nashville SC
48% means we estimate about 48 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Nashville SC 48% · Draw 23% · Inter Miami CF 30%
2 · Understand the price
Nashville SC
2.12 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +112
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.12 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 48%; the price implies 47%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 8.9%
| Outcome | No-vig reference | Best collected price | Collected | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 2.2344.8% implied | 2.12Coolbet +1 | −2.4pp | |
| Draw | 4.2523.5% implied | 4.00Coolbet +2 | −1.5pp | |
| Inter Miami CF | 3.1631.7% implied | 3.05NordicBet | 2h oldthan this market’s newest quote | −1.1pp |
Nashville SC held from 2.05 to 2.05 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
| Book | Nashville SC | Draw | Inter Miami CF | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.90 | |
| Betclic | 1.91 | 3.55 | 2.82 | |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.80 | 2.80 | |
| Coolbet | Best price: 2.12 | Best price: 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| FanDuel | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.75 | 2.90 | |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.80 | 2.98 | |
| NordicBet | 2.12 | 3.95 | Best price: 3.05 | |
| Paddy Power | 2.05 | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Sky Bet | 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.80 | |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.90 | |
| Winamax | 1.96 | 3.70 | 2.80 | |
| Winamax | 1.94 | 3.65 | 2.75 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Nashville SC 21d, Inter Miami CF 21d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Nashville SC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 48%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 52%.
How does Clauseground predict Nashville SC vs Inter Miami CF?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.