FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
FC Cincinnati
44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: FC Cincinnati 44% · Draw 23% · San Jose Earthquakes 33%
2 · Understand the price
San Jose Earthquakes
3.41 decimal odds
LowVig · US +241
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.41 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+4.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 29%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 44% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.27 | 2.03 decimal oddsGtbets · US +103price implies 49% | −5.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 23% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.43 | 4.30 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +330price implies 23% | −0.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 33% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.99 | 3.41 decimal oddsLowVig · US +241price implies 29% | +4.1 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: FC Cincinnati 7d, San Jose Earthquakes 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for FC Cincinnati.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
San Jose Earthquakes
Match result+4.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 29% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 33% — about 4 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 7% more than the typical collected price (3.20 across 41 venues).
Combined estimate puts San Jose Earthquakes at 33%; best collected price 3.41 at lowvig implies 29% — a +4.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Over 3.5
Totals+1.3pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 54% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 55% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 1% more than the typical collected price (1.83 across 16 venues).
Combined estimate puts Over 3.5 at 55%; best collected price 1.85 at betrivers implies 54% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FC Cincinnati the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.
How does Clauseground predict FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.