Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Chicago Fire
60% means we estimate about 60 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Chicago Fire 60% · Draw 21% · Charlotte FC 19%
2 · Understand the price
Charlotte FC
5.55 decimal odds
BetOnline · US +455
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.55 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 60% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.66 | 1.55 decimal oddsGtbets · US −182price implies 65% | −4.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 21% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.88 | 5.00 decimal oddsFanatics · US +400price implies 20% | +0.5 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Charlotte FC | 19% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.18 | 5.55 decimal oddsBetOnline · US +455price implies 18% | +1.3 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Chicago Fire 7d, Charlotte FC 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Chicago Fire.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Charlotte FC
Match result+1.3pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 18% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 19% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 9% more than the typical collected price (5.10 across 40 venues).
Combined estimate puts Charlotte FC at 19%; best collected price 5.55 at betonlineag implies 18% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+0.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 20% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 21% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 11% more than the typical collected price (4.50 across 40 venues).
Combined estimate puts Draw at 21%; best collected price 5.00 at fanatics implies 20% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Chicago Fire the most likely outcome at 60%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 40%.
How does Clauseground predict Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.