D.C. United vs Nashville SC— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Nashville SC
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: D.C. United 29% · Draw 26% · Nashville SC 45%
2 · Understand the price
Nashville SC
2.40 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +140
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.40 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 45%; the price implies 42%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. United | 29% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.49 | 3.00 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +200price implies 33% | −4.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 26% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.84 | 3.55 decimal oddsNordicbet · US +255price implies 28% | −2.1 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Nashville SC | 45% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.21 | 2.40 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +140price implies 42% | +3.7 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: D.C. United 7d, Nashville SC 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for D.C. United.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Nashville SC
Match result+3.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 42% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 45% — about 4 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 5% more than the typical collected price (2.28 across 41 venues).
Combined estimate puts Nashville SC at 45%; best collected price 2.40 at leovegas_se implies 42% — a +3.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Over 2.5
Totals+2.3pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 52% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 55% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
This price pays about 3% more than the typical collected price (1.85 across 19 venues).
Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 55%; best collected price 1.91 at betonlineag implies 52% — a +2.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win D.C. United vs Nashville SC?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.
How does Clauseground predict D.C. United vs Nashville SC?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.