Burnley vs West Ham United— market analysis & odds
· Turf Moor, Burnley
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
West Ham United
38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Burnley 35% · Draw 28% · West Ham United 38%
2 · Understand the price
Burnley
2.92 decimal odds
Betsson · US +192
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.92 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 35%; the price implies 34%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 35% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.88 | 2.92 decimal oddsBetsson · US +192price implies 34% | +0.5 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Draw | 28% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.63 | 3.60 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +260price implies 28% | −0.2 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| West Ham United | 38% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.66 | 2.40 decimal oddsBovada · US +140price implies 42% | −4.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Burnley 7d, West Ham United 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Burnley.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Burnley
Match result+0.5pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 34% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 35% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Burnley at 35%; best collected price 2.92 at betsson implies 34% — a +0.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Burnley vs West Ham United?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes West Ham United the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.
How does Clauseground predict Burnley vs West Ham United?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.