AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
AZ Alkmaar
65% means we estimate about 65 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: AZ Alkmaar 65% · Draw 20% · ADO Den Haag 16%
2 · Understand the price
ADO Den Haag
6.40 decimal odds
Nordicbet · US +540
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.40 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 16%; the price implies 16%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 65% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.55 | 1.53 decimal oddsBetMGM · US −189price implies 65% | −0.8 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 20% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.05 | 5.00 decimal oddsFanatics · US +400price implies 20% | −0.2 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| ADO Den Haag | 16% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 6.42 | 6.40 decimal oddsNordicbet · US +540price implies 16% | −0.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: AZ Alkmaar 7d, ADO Den Haag 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for AZ Alkmaar.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 65%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 35%.
How does Clauseground predict AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.