PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
PSV Eindhoven
77% means we estimate about 77 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: PSV Eindhoven 77% · Draw 13% · Fortuna Sittard 10%
2 · Understand the price
Fortuna Sittard
12.00 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +1100
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 12.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 10%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 77% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.29 | 1.25 decimal oddsCoral · US −400price implies 80% | −2.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 13% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 7.92 | 7.50 decimal oddsCasumo · US +650price implies 13% | −0.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Fortuna Sittard | 10% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 9.95 | 12.00 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +1100price implies 8% | +1.7 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: PSV Eindhoven 7d, Fortuna Sittard 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for PSV Eindhoven.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Fortuna Sittard
Match result+1.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 8% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 10% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Fortuna Sittard at 10%; best collected price 12.00 at coolbet implies 8% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely outcome at 77%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 23%.
How does Clauseground predict PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.