NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
NEC Nijmegen
65% means we estimate about 65 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: NEC Nijmegen 65% · Draw 19% · SC Telstar 16%
2 · Understand the price
SC Telstar
6.80 decimal odds
Betsson · US +580
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 16%; the price implies 15%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 65% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.54 | 1.48 decimal oddsGrosvenor · US −208price implies 68% | −2.6 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 19% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 5.21 | 5.30 decimal oddsTipico de · US +430price implies 19% | +0.3 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| SC Telstar | 16% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 6.33 | 6.80 decimal oddsBetsson · US +580price implies 15% | +1.1 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: NEC Nijmegen 7d, SC Telstar 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for NEC Nijmegen.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
SC Telstar
Match result+1.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 15% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 16% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts SC Telstar at 16%; best collected price 6.80 at betsson implies 15% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes NEC Nijmegen the most likely outcome at 65%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 35%.
How does Clauseground predict NEC Nijmegen vs SC Telstar?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.