Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Portland Timbers
39% means we estimate about 39 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Portland Timbers 39% · Draw 24% · Real Salt Lake 37%
2 · Understand the price
Real Salt Lake
2.75 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +175
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.75 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 37%; the price implies 36%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 39% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.59 | 2.50 decimal oddsPinnacle · US +150price implies 40% | −1.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 24% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.10 | 4.00 decimal oddsSkybet · US +300price implies 25% | −0.6 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Real Salt Lake | 37% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.71 | 2.75 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +175price implies 36% | +0.6 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Portland Timbers 3d, Real Salt Lake 3d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Portland Timbers.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Portland Timbers the most likely outcome at 39%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 61%.
How does Clauseground predict Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.