Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Los Angeles FC
73% means we estimate about 73 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Los Angeles FC 73% · Draw 16% · Sporting Kansas City 12%
2 · Understand the price
Sporting Kansas City
10.50 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +950
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 10.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 12%; the price implies 10%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 73% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.37 | 1.29 decimal oddsBetMGM · US −345price implies 78% | −4.8 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 16% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 6.36 | 7.10 decimal oddsBetanysports · US +610price implies 14% | +1.6 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Sporting Kansas City | 12% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 8.69 | 10.50 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +950price implies 10% | +2.0 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Los Angeles FC 3d, Sporting Kansas City 3d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Los Angeles FC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Sporting Kansas City
Match result+2.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 10% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 12% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Sporting Kansas City at 12%; best collected price 10.50 at leovegas_se implies 10% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+1.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 14% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 16% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Draw at 16%; best collected price 7.10 at betanysports implies 14% — a +1.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Los Angeles FC the most likely outcome at 73%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 27%.
How does Clauseground predict Los Angeles FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.