San Diego FC vs FC Dallas— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
San Diego FC
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: San Diego FC 41% · Draw 24% · FC Dallas 35%
2 · Understand the price
FC Dallas
2.88 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +188
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.88 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 35%; the price implies 35%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 41% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.42 | 2.38 decimal oddsBetsson · US +138price implies 42% | −0.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 24% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.16 | 4.00 decimal oddsSkybet · US +300price implies 25% | −1.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| FC Dallas | 35% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.88 | 2.88 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +188price implies 35% | −0.0 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: San Diego FC 3d, FC Dallas 3d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for San Diego FC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win San Diego FC vs FC Dallas?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes San Diego FC the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.
How does Clauseground predict San Diego FC vs FC Dallas?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.