St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
St. Louis City SC
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: St. Louis City SC 45% · Draw 25% · Colorado Rapids 29%
2 · Understand the price
Colorado Rapids
3.58 decimal odds
Betanysports · US +258
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.58 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC | 45% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.20 | 2.05 decimal oddsLeovegas se · US +105price implies 49% | −3.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 25% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.93 | 3.92 decimal oddsBetus · US +292price implies 26% | −0.1 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Colorado Rapids | 29% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.44 | 3.58 decimal oddsBetanysports · US +258price implies 28% | +1.1 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: St. Louis City SC 3d, Colorado Rapids 3d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for St. Louis City SC.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Colorado Rapids
Match result+1.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 28% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 29% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Colorado Rapids at 29%; best collected price 3.58 at betanysports implies 28% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Both teams to score — No
Both teams to score+0.8pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 38% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 39% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — No at 39%; best collected price 2.62 at fanduel implies 38% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes St. Louis City SC the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.
How does Clauseground predict St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.