Lyon vs AS Monaco — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Lyon
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Lyon 41% · Draw 28% · AS Monaco 31%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.64 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +264
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.64 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 28%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%
Lyon
2.31 at Pinnacle
collected
no-vig reference 2.4241.3% implieddifference −1.9pp
Draw
3.64 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 3.5927.8% implieddifference +0.4pp
AS Monaco
3.10
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Lyon 21d, AS Monaco 21d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Lyon.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Lyon the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.
How does Clauseground predict Lyon vs AS Monaco?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.