Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Real Madrid
83% means we estimate about 83 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Real Madrid 83% · Draw 11% · Alavés 7%
2 · Understand the price
Alavés
18.00 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +1700
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 18.00 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 7%; the price implies 6%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Real Madridmodel 69% · market 83% (model vs market −14.0pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 20% · market 11% (model vs market +9.6pp)
model
market
Alavésmodel 11% · market 7% (model vs market +4.4pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%
estimate 7% · price implies 6% · +19.3% expected returnif the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Alavés at 7%; best collected price 18.00 at marathonbet implies 6% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Madrid the most likely outcome at 83%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 17%.
How does Clauseground predict Real Madrid vs Alavés?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Real Madrid held from 1.15 to 1.15 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Real MadridDrawAlavés
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Real Madrid
Draw
Alavés
Collected
Betfred
Best price: 1.17★
7.50
15.00
Bovada
1.14
9.00
14.00
BoyleSports
1.14
8.00
13.00
Casumo
1.14
7.50
13.00
DraftKings
1.14
8.50
13.00
LeoVegas
1.14
7.50
12.00
Marathonbet
1.15
8.50
Best price: 18.00★
Pinnacle
1.15
8.89
14.34
Tipico
1.13
Best price: 9.50★
14.00
Unibet
1.15
7.00
14.00
Unibet
1.07
6.30
11.00
William Hill
1.15
8.00
15.00
Winamax
1.14
7.75
11.50
Winamax
1.11
6.25
9.50
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 4.8%
– Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
Best price: 1.91★
1.80
LeoVegas
1.90
1.80
William Hill
1.85
Best price: 1.85★
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
1.86
1.96
Tipico
1.75
1.97
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.