Brest vs Paris FC — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Paris FC
42% means we estimate about 42 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Brest 30% · Draw 29% · Paris FC 42%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.62 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +262
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.62 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.9 percentage points
Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 4.7%
Brest
3.21 at Pinnacle
collected
no-vig reference 3.3629.8% implieddifference −1.4pp
Draw
3.62 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 3.5128.5% implieddifference +0.9pp
Paris FC
2.29
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Brest 19d, Paris FC 20d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.7 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Brest.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Draw
Match result+0.9pp differencereference market3.62 at Marathonbet
no-vig 3.5112 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +3.2% expected return if the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Brest vs Paris FC?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Paris FC the most likely outcome at 42%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 58%.
How does Clauseground predict Brest vs Paris FC?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.