AS Roma vs Monza — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
AS Roma
76% means we estimate about 76 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: AS Roma 76% · Draw 14% · Monza 10%
2 · Understand the price
Monza
11.50 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +1050
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 11.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 10%; the price implies 9%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%
AS Roma
1.24 at Marathonbet +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.3176.2% implieddifference −4.5pp
Draw
7.00 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference 6.9814.3% implieddifference +0.0pp
Monza
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: AS Roma 22d, Monza 21d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 2.8 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for AS Roma.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Monza
Match result+0.8pp differencereference market11.50 at Marathonbet
no-vig 10.5112 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 10% · price implies 9% · +9.4% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Monza at 10%; best collected price 11.50 at marathonbet implies 9% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win AS Roma vs Monza?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes AS Roma the most likely outcome at 76%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 24%.
How does Clauseground predict AS Roma vs Monza?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.