Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Sporting Lisbon
37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Sporting Lisbon 37% · Draw 26% · Manchester United 37%
2 · Understand the price
Sporting Lisbon
2.65 decimal odds
Unibet nl · US +165
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.65 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 37%; the price implies 38%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Expert analysisFull detail remains available
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Sporting Lisbonmodel 29% · market 37% (model vs market −8.4pp)
model
market
Drawmodel 25% · market 26% (model vs market −0.6pp)
model
market
Manchester Unitedmodel 46% · market 37% (model vs market +9.0pp)
model
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%
estimate 42% · price implies 41% · +3.0% expected returnif the estimate is right
Questions
Who is most likely to win Sporting Lisbon vs Manchester United?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Sporting Lisbon the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.
How does Clauseground predict Sporting Lisbon vs Manchester United?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.
market
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
– Sporting Lisbon held from 2.55 to 2.55 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on Pinnacle.
Sporting LisbonDrawManchester United
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 17–37 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 3 hours in the window had no collection at all and are drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price— 37 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Sporting Lisbon
Draw
Manchester United
Collected
888sport
2.50
3.50
2.62
Betclic
2.32
3.30
2.45
Betfred
2.50
3.60
2.62
BetMGM
2.45
3.60
2.55
BetRivers
2.60
3.65
2.55
Betsson
2.60
3.55
2.60
BetUS
2.55
3.50
2.55
Betway
2.40
3.60
2.50
Bovada
2.55
3.65
2.60
BoyleSports
2.40
3.75
2.50
Casumo
2.50
3.60
2.50
Codere
2.55
3.45
Best price: 2.65★
Coolbet
2.55
3.75
2.65
Coral
2.45
3.50
2.50
DraftKings
2.50
3.60
2.55
Fanatics
2.50
3.50
2.60
FanDuel
2.50
3.70
2.55
Grosvenor
2.55
3.60
2.50
GTbets
2.60
3.57
2.55
Ladbrokes
2.45
3.50
2.50
LeoVegas
2.55
3.60
2.50
LeoVegas
2.40
3.45
2.45
LiveScore Bet
2.50
3.55
2.50
Marathonbet
2.58
3.60
2.65
NordicBet
2.62
3.60
2.62
Paddy Power
2.50
3.60
2.50
Pinnacle
2.55
3.68
2.60
PMU
2.38
3.35
2.38
Sky Bet
2.50
3.60
2.50
Unibet
Best price: 2.65★
Best price: 3.80★
2.63
Unibet
2.65
3.80
2.63
Unibet
2.50
3.50
2.55
Unibet
2.10
3.30
2.45
Virgin Bet
2.50
3.55
2.50
William Hill
2.50
3.50
2.62
Winamax
2.40
3.60
2.50
Winamax
2.30
3.40
2.40
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%
– Both teams score held from 1.53 to 1.53 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price— 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book
Both teams score
Not both teams score
Collected
Betfred
1.44
Best price: 2.62★
Coral
1.50
2.45
Ladbrokes
1.50
2.45
LeoVegas
1.44
2.60
LiveScore Bet
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 42%; best collected price 2.46 at betsson implies 41% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 3 hours in the window had no collection at all and are drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
2.33
LeoVegas
1.61
2.35
Marathonbet
1.61
2.35
NordicBet
1.55
2.45
PMU
1.50
2.20
Unibet
1.61
2.35
Unibet
1.60
2.35
William Hill
Best price: 1.62★
2.25
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 3 hours in the window had no collection at all and are drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Best price: 1.96★
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 4 hours in the window had no collection at all and are drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
1.49
2.48
Virgin Bet
1.49
2.48
William Hill
Best price: 1.53★
2.45
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.